The Lib Dems and Labour with Ed Davey as prime minister is the least unpopular coalition combination polled
Key takeaways
- Of the coalition combinations polled, the Lib Dems and Labour with Ed Davey as prime minister is the least unpopular option
- At least half of Labour, Lib Dem and Green voters would support any coalition between Labour and the Lib Dems or Greens
- Most Conservative and Reform UK voters would support a Badenoch-led coalition between the two parties, but Tories are less keen if Farage were in charge
- Nearly half of Britons say they do not want Reform UK in government after the next election (49%), while 45% say the same of Labour
- Despite growing fragmentation, Britons still tend to prefer single-party government to coalitions by 49% to 27%
Britain is a long way from its traditional two-party system, with recent voting intention polls showing as many as five parties on 15% of the vote or more. If repeated in a general election, this could lead to a hung parliament, which would require some form of multi-party arrangement, such as a coalition, in order to form a government.
Nonetheless, the public still tend to hold a preference for a single-party government, with half of Britons (49%) saying they’d rather one party govern by itself, compared to just over a quarter (27%) who would rather two or more parties governed together in coalition.
Support for single-party government is strongest among those currently intending to vote Reform UK (76%) or Conservative (69%), with current Labour supporters also favouring one-party government by 53% to 29%. Lib Dems are split on the question 40% to 43%, while those intending to vote Green favour coalitions over single-party government by 46% to 35%.
Which coalitions would Britons most support?
A preference, though, is not enough to overcome parliamentary arithmetic. So if the possibility arises, which coalitions would Britons accept?
Of the potential combinations polled, none hold support from the majority of the public, with only one opposed by significantly less than half of Britons: a coalition between the Lib Dems and Labour where the Lib Dems were the largest party and Ed Davey was prime minister, which 36% of Britons say they would support and 45% would oppose.
Support is a little lower for the mirror image of this, with just 31% saying they would back a similar coalition where Labour were the larger party and Keir Starmer was prime minister. Coalitions between Labour and the Greens are in a similar territory, with 30-33% supportive regardless of who was at the helm. Around half of Britons (49-51%) say they would oppose any of these three left-of-centre coalitions being formed.
But while these coalitions might not receive public support, they are all backed by at least 50% of those currently intending to vote for either Labour, the Lib Dems or the Greens. Current Labour voters are equally supportive (79%) of Labour-led coalitions with the Lib Dems or Greens, while the top option polled for current Lib Dem (79%) or Green (88%) voters involves their chosen party leading a coalition with Labour as the junior partner.
A coalition between the Conservatives and Reform UK, which has been discussed as a potential outcome of the next election, would have the support of 29% of Britons if Nigel Farage was prime minister and 25% if Badenoch was in the driving seat, though either arrangement would be opposed by most Britons (56-57%), including nearly half (45-47%) who would strongly oppose such a government.
However, a coalition of the right only has the support of majorities of both parties’ current supporters if the Conservatives were the larger party, with 66% of those intending to vote Tory and 55% of those currently leaning towards Reform UK supporting this arrangement.
While current Reform UK supporters would be more enthusiastic if Nigel Farage was prime minister, with 85% supporting such a coalition, Conservatives are divided 41% to 49% on propping up a Farage-led government.
Coalitions between Labour and parties of the right are the least popular, with just one in six Britons (16-18%) supportive of a ‘grand coalition’ between Labour and the Conservatives, regardless of who was prime minister.
Half of current Conservatives (50%) would be open to such a government if it was Badenoch who was at Number 10, though just 14% of those intending to vote Labour would be in favour. If the roles were reversed, 40% of current Labour supporters would support the two parties governing together, while just 15% of Tories would be happy to see their party keep Starmer in office.
Which parties would be in Britain’s dream and nightmare governments?
Ultimately, only one combination of parties can govern at once, though few Britons have a particular desire to see any one party in power, let alone a coalition. Just 26% of Britons say Reform UK would ideally be in government after the next election, alongside 23% who’d like the Greens in office and 20-21% who say so of the Conservatives, Labour or Lib Dems.
But what could inform tactical voting choices as the next election nears are who Britons do not want in government, with nearly half of the public (45-48%) saying they would not like to see Labour or Reform UK in power, with 38% putting the Conservatives in the same category. Just over a quarter (26-27%) would particularly not like the Greens or SNP in office, with 21% saying so of the Lib Dems or Plaid Cymru.
A hope that Reform UK do not end up in office is held by 89% of current Green supporters and 82-83% of those currently intending to vote Labour or the Lib Dems, as well as 37% of current Tories, roughly double the 21% who feature Farage’s party in their ideal government.
A desire not to see Labour re-elected is strongest among those currently intending to vote for Reform UK (90%) or the Conservatives (75%), but Green supporters are also more likely to have a clear preference for Labour not being in power (31%) than retaining it (20%), while Lib Dems are divided 31% to 26% over whether Labour would ideally be in or out of the next government.
Six in ten current Reform UK supporters (61%) would particularly not like to see the Greens in power after the next election, with most (54%) also keen not to see the Lib Dems return to government, views held by 46% and 30% of current Conservatives respectively.
Wanting to not see the Tories themselves in office is a view held by 74% of those currently intending to vote Green, 66% of those erring towards Labour and 50% of those backing the Lib Dems, as well as 28% of current Reform UK voters, more than the 21% who feature the Conservatives in their ideal government.
How would voters want parties to act in kingmaker scenarios?
The problem with ‘ideal’ or preferred coalitions, though, is that the parliamentary arithmetic doesn’t always add up, with parties instead often faced with just a handful of realistic options.
For instance, barring the most optimistic Lib Dems, few expect the party’s best position at the next election to be stronger than holding the balance of power between Labour and either the Conservatives or Reform UK. In either scenario, current Lib Dem supporters would want the party to form a Labour-led government by 59% to 20% against the Tories and 66% to 7% against Reform UK. Only a small minority (14-21%) would want the party to stick to opposition.
If the Greens were in the same scenarios, their current voters would want their party to act similarly, with seven in ten (69-71%) wanting them to form a government with Labour instead of either the Conservatives or Reform UK. One in five (19%) would rather the Greens stayed in opposition in either alternative.
In the less likely scenario of either holding the balance of power between the Conservatives and Reform UK, those intending to vote Lib Dem are split between the 44% who would rather the party entered another government with the Tories and the 42% who would prefer remaining in opposition. Greens are more reluctant for their party to back the Tories, with 61% preferring the party remain in opposition in such a scenario.
Who would Reform UK voters prefer as a coalition partner?
If Reform UK end up as the largest party in a hung parliament, a result projected by YouGov’s most recent MRP, their current voters are largely split between the 48% who would want them to form a coalition with the Conservatives and the 43% who would prefer they attempted to form a government without a majority by itself.
But if Nigel Farage’s party falls back and merely ends up holding the balance of power between potential Conservative or Labour-led governments, 70% of current Reform UK supporters would rather the party sought a coalition with the Conservatives, relative to just 22% who’d prefer to remain in opposition.
Who would Conservative voters prefer as a coalition partner?
On current polling, the Conservatives are more likely to serve as a potential kingmaker than a senior party in a coalition. In the event that they held the balance of power between a Labour or Reform UK-led government, half of current Conservatives (50%) would want the party to opt for Reform UK, compared to just 13% who’d rather form a government with Labour. A quarter (24%) would want the Tories to remain in opposition.
But if Britain did return to a situation where Labour and the Conservatives were the top two parties, but where a hung parliament still occurred, similar numbers of Tory voters would be open to going into coalition with either the Lib Dems (69%) or Reform UK (63%) in order to eject Labour from Downing Street.
This is not to say that Tory voters feel similarly about Davey and Farage’s parties. When given a choice of all major parties to work with, current Conservative voters are roughly twice as likely to pick Reform UK (39%) over the Lib Dems (21%) as their preferred coalition partner.
Who would Labour voters prefer as a coalition partner?
Those currently intending to vote Labour are a little more picky when it comes to potential governing partners. If the Lib Dems held the balance of power between a Labour or Reform UK government, 82% would want Labour to try and form a coalition with Ed Davey’s party.
But if it was the Tories who held the balance of power, just 52% would want Labour to even try and form a government with Kemi Badenoch’s party, with 25% instead perfectly happy to let them walk. And if it was Reform UK holding the balance of power between Labour and the Tories, just 24% of Labour supporters would want the party to seek a coalition, with 43% instead preferring Labour rejected them, even if doing so ensured a Conservative-Reform UK coalition.
If Labour had a full choice of partners, however, 43% of those currently intending to vote Labour would pick the Lib Dems, while 29% would opt first for the Greens.
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Photo: Getty
