Labour are down to just 15% in our first figures in the run up to the 2026 election
Key takeaways
- Reform UK now second-placed party in Scottish voting intention
- SNP still at the front of the pack, leading Reform by 14 points on the constituency vote and 9 points on the list vote
- Constituency vote: SNP 34%, Reform UK 20%, Labour 15%, Conservatives 10%, Lib Dems 10%, Greens 9%
- Regional list vote: SNP: 29%, Reform UK 20%, Labour 15%, Greens, 12%, Conservatives 11%, Lib Dems 9%
- Just 32% of 2024 Scottish Labour voters intend to give the party their constituency vote in May, with 14% opting for Reform UK and 13% for the SNP, while 21% are undecided
- Scots disapprove of the Scottish government’s record by 57% to 25% and of the UK government’s record by 75% to 10%
YouGov’s first voting intention poll for the 2026 Scottish parliamentary election shows that Reform UK have now taken second place in the Holyrood race, although the Scottish National Party (SNP) still hold a clear lead over Nigel Farage’s party.
The SNP are now on 34% of the constituency vote, down 14 points since the 2021 election, and are on 29% of the list vote, down 11 points. This would be their lowest share of the regional vote since 2003, before they were in power.
Reform UK have a 20% share on both votes, a breakthrough for the party that won just 0.2% of the list vote in 2021. Such a result would guarantee that the party won seats in the Scottish Parliament, a first for a radical right party.
The constituency vote will determine the results in the 73 seats elected by first past the post, while the list vote will determine the 56 regional members elected by proportional representation which ‘top-up’ the results to ensure the overall composition of the Scottish Parliament more closely reflects the share of the votes cast.
Labour also have matching 15% vote shares for both parts of the election, relative to a 22% constituency share and an 18% regional share in 2021. If repeated in May, this would be Labour’s worst result in either a Westminster or Holyrood election in 116 years.
The Conservatives, who are currently the second largest party at Holyrood, have seen their support roughly halve since 2021. On these figures, they would fall to just 10% of the constituency vote (down 12 points) and 11% of the list vote (down 12 points). To date, the party’s lowest ever Scotland-wide vote share in any election has been 12%.
The Greens are on 12% of the list vote, up four points since 2021, as well as on 9% of the constituency vote. Previously, however, they have only stood in a handful of constituencies.
Also up on the 2021 election are the Liberal Democrats, who are on 10% of the constituency vote and 9% of the list vote, gains of three and four points respectively.
How have Scottish voters moved between the 2024 general election and January 2026?
A mere third of Scots who backed Labour at the 2024 general election (32%) currently intend to cast their constituency vote in May for the party, with 14% now supporting Reform UK, 13% now intending to vote SNP and 4-6% backing each of the Conservatives, Lib Dems and Greens. A further one in five (21%), though, are currently unsure who to vote for.
The Conservatives have also suffered severe losses, with just 48% of their 2024 voters intending to give the party their constituency vote at present, though these have mostly gone in one direction, with 27% now backing Reform UK and no more than 3% having switched to any other party. One in six (17%) 2024 Tories are undecided.
SNP voters have been more loyal over the past 18 months, with 73% expecting to cast their constituency vote for the party, though this falls to 63% for the regional vote, where 15% instead intend to back the Greens. Around one in ten 2024 SNP voters (9-10%) are undecided on either vote.
How does Scottish voting intention vary by 2014 independence and 2016 Brexit vote?
The major referendums of the last decade continue to cast a shadow over Scottish voting intentions.
The SNP remain the party of independence, with 61% of 2014 Yes voters giving their constituency vote to the party, relative to 12% of No voters. They are also the leading party in Scotland among Remainers, 42% of whom back the SNP, roughly twice the proportion of Leavers who do (18%)
Reform UK’s support is relatively evenly split across No and Yes voters (24% vs 16%), while being roughly four times higher among those who backed Brexit than wanted to stay in the EU (42% vs 9%), where they are the largest party by a 24-point margin.
The Conservatives are losing their claim to being the party of the Union, with just 20% of No voters intending to vote for the party this May. Their support is also higher among Leave voters than Remainers (17% vs 9%).
Labour’s support is likewise concentrated among No voters (26% vs 3%), but is instead higher among those who backed Remain than Leave (18% vs 9%).
Government approval in Scotland, January 2026
Although the SNP might be leading on voting intention, just 25% of Scots approve of the Scottish government’s record to date, while a clear majority (57%) disapprove of the SNP’s performance in office.
This is, though, relatively popular compared to the UK government, which just 10% of Scots approve of, against 75% disapproving of Labour’s record to date. This includes 68% of 2024 Scottish Labour voters giving the government they elected a negative review, compared to only 17% approving of their record so far.
In contrast, 2024 SNP voters approve of the Scottish government’s record by 62% to 26%.
Scottish political favourability ratings, January 2026
John Swinney remains the most popular party leader in Scotland, with a third of Scots (33%) having a favourable opinion of the SNP leader, while half (50%) see the first minister unfavourably.
This compares to just 17% of Scots having a positive view of Keir Starmer, while three quarters (74%) see the prime minister in a negative light. This includes 2024 Labour voters being twice as likely to see the party’s leader unfavourably (64%) as favourably (32%).
Other UK-wide party leaders are also not popular north of the border, with Scots seeing Nigel Farage unfavourably by a margin of 69% to 24%, Kemi Badenoch by 58% to 17%, and Ed Davey by 37% to 22%.
Just 18% of Scots hold a favourable opinion of Anas Sarwar, while 52% see the Scottish Labour leader in a negative light, including nearly half (45%) of 2024 Labour voters, more than the 31% who see him favourably.
Ahead of the Holyrood campaign, other Scottish party leaders are relative unknowns, with at least 56% of Scots saying they don’t know how they feel about Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay, Scottish Lib Dem leader Alex Cole-Hamilton, Scottish Green co-leaders Ross Greer and Gillian Mackay, and Alba leader Kenny MacAskill. This compares to just 7-12% seeing any of them favourably.
Most important issues facing Scotland, January 2026
As the formal election campaign approaches, the economy and health are seen as the top issues facing Scotland, with 44-48% of Scots feeling they are among the most pressing matters for the country. This is followed by immigration, which 36% see as one of the most important issues facing Scotland.
Nearly a quarter of Scots (23%) believe housing is one of the top issues facing the country, with 19% saying so of Brexit and education, the latter up four points since December.
One in seven (14-15%) place tax and crime among Scotland’s biggest issues, with 12% saying so of each of Scotland’s constitutional future and the environment. The proportion of Scots seeing welfare benefits as a top issue has fallen four points since last month to 11%.
The economy and health are seen as key issues across the political board, with 47-54% of those who backed Labour, the SNP or the Conservatives in 2024 identifying them as top issues.
Around three in ten SNP voters (30-31%) see both Scotland’s constitutional future and Britain leaving the EU as among the most important issues facing Scotland, while 2024 Conservatives are disproportionately likely to cite immigration (48%), education (31%), tax (23%), crime (21%) and welfare benefits (21%) as top issues for the country.
Scottish independence referendum voting intention, January 2026
While independence might not be high on the public agenda at the moment, the question continues to hang over Scottish politics, with the SNP saying they would declare a mandate for a second referendum if they win a majority of seats in May.
Of those who know they would vote, 47% of Scots say they would vote “Yes” to independence, while 53% would vote “No”.
See the full results here and here
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