Just 24% of 2024 Welsh Labour voters believe either the UK or Welsh governments are doing a good job
Key takeaways
- 67% of Welsh adults believe the UK government is doing a bad job, with 52% feeling the same about the Welsh government
- Around half of 2024 Welsh Labour voters (48-50%) believe both the UK and Welsh governments are doing bad jobs
- 59% of Welsh people believe health should be a top priority for the Welsh government, ahead of the cost of living (45%), immigration (26%) and the economy (26%)
- Welsh adults believe Keir Starmer is doing a bad job as prime minister by 74% to 15%
- Eluned Morgan is seen as doing badly as first minister by 47% to 22%
- 54% of Welsh people would vote against Welsh independence in a referendum, while 26% would vote for it
It’s now a little over three months until the next Senedd election, which is set to be a landmark moment in Welsh politics, with Plaid Cymru clearly ahead in our latest voting intention poll and the previously dominant Labour on a mere 10% of the vote. But where does Welsh public opinion stand on wider political questions?
Do Welsh people think their governments are doing a good job?
Key to Labour’s poor ratings in Wales is likely to be the perception that the Labour governments at both Westminster and Cardiff Bay are doing bad jobs.
Two thirds of Welsh adults (67%) give the UK government a negative performance rating, relative to 20% feeling they’re doing neither particularly well or badly and just 10% believing they’ve done a good job.
The Welsh government fares only a little better, being seen to be doing a bad job by a smaller margin of 52% to 14%, with a further 25% seeing them as doing neither a good nor a bad job.
Just 24% of those who backed Labour at the 2024 general election believe that either government are doing a good job, with this only rising to around half (48-50%) when looking at those who intend to vote for the party in May.
What do Welsh people believe should be the top priorities for the Welsh government?
The NHS is likely to be one of main issues of the Senedd election campaign, with 59% of Welsh people seeing health as one of the areas that the Welsh government should most prioritise, ahead of the cost of living (45%), the economy (26%) and immigration (26%), even if the latter is entirely an issue ‘reserved’ for Westminster.
Health is seen as a top priority for Cardiff Bay for 68-72% of those intending to vote Plaid Cymru, Labour or Conservative this May, as well as 54% of those currently backing Reform UK, though this is relative to 64% seeing immigration as a top priority.
The cost of living is a key concern for 44-45% of those backing either Plaid Cymru or Labour in the Senedd race, and 32-35% of those backing either Reform UK or the Conservatives, while 23-31% of all four parties’ current voters believe Cardiff Bay should prioritise the economy.
Other pressing concerns for those backing Plaid Cymru include housing (25%), education (22%) and the environment (20%), with just 15% believing Welsh independence should be a top priority for the Welsh government.
For the UK government, between 44-48% of Welsh people believe that the cost of living, health and immigration should be top priorities.
Which politicians do Welsh people think are doing a good job?
Only 15% of Welsh adults believe Keir Starmer is doing well as prime minister, compared to nearly 74% who feel he is doing a bad job in office. Even among 2024 Welsh Labour voters, just 33% think Starmer is doing a good job, while 61% feel he’s doing badly.
Eluned Morgan is evaluated a little more positively, with 22% of Welsh people feeling she is doing well as first minister, though nearly half (47%) still feel she is doing badly. However, nearly 18 months into the role, 31% of Welsh adults don’t know how they feel about Morgan’s performance.
More than a third of Welsh adults (36%) believe Rhun ap Iorwerth is doing well as leader of Plaid Cymru, up ten points from September, relative to 25% feeling he is doing badly. Four in ten (39%) are unsure of their view of the man who is favourite to be the next first minister, though this is down seven points since last autumn.
In line with improvements across Britain, Welsh opinion has also improved towards Kemi Badenoch, with 26% now feeling she is doing well as Tory leader, up ten points since September, relative to 48% believing she is doing badly, down six points.
By contrast, Wales has become more negative towards Nigel Farage’s performance as Reform UK leader. The 35% believing he is doing well leading the right-wing party is a five point decrease relative to last autumn, mirrored by a five point increase in the number who feel he is doing a bad job, to 47%.
The Welsh public are split 29% to 32% over whether Ed Davey is doing well or badly as Lib Dem leader and 27/27% over how Zack Polanski is doing in charge of the Greens.
What do Welsh people think about devolution and independence?
Although Plaid Cymru have risen in the polls in the last year or two, support for Welsh independence hasn’t quite caught up. Just a quarter of Welsh adults (26%) say they would vote for Wales to become an independent country if there was a referendum, though this is the highest figure recorded by YouGov’s tracker for ITV Wales to date. Nonetheless, a majority (54%) would vote against any such proposal.
It highlights the multi-faceted nature of Plaid Cymru’s current support that just half of those intending to back the pro-independence party in May (52%) say they would vote ‘Yes’ in a referendum, while 33% would reject separation.
Those currently tending to back Labour would vote ‘No’ by 58% to 28%, with opposition to independence increasing to 77% of current Reform UK supporters and 93% of Conservatives.
At the other end of the constitutional spectrum, if a referendum was held on abolishing the Senedd, nearly three in ten Welsh people (28%) say they would vote ‘Yes’, while nearly half (46%) would vote ‘No’.
A ‘No’ vote would come from 80% of those intending to vote Plaid Cymru in the Senedd election and 70% of those backing Labour, while a vote to abolish the Senedd would include 68% of Reform UK supporters and 59% of those intending to vote Conservative.
Do Welsh people believe Wales gets its fair share?
A majority of Welsh people (57%) believe that the nation receives less than its fair share of government spending currently, compared to just 15% who believe it gets about the right amount of funding and just 3% who believe it is getting more than is fair.
Identical proportions believe this to have been true of Welsh funding under the previous Conservative government.
Those who voted Labour at the last general election are similarly likely to believe that Wales has been receiving less than its fair share under the current Labour government (60%) as they were under the previous Conservative government (67%).
Welsh Conservatives are more split, though likewise make little distinction between recent Westminster governments, with 33-40% believing Wales has been underfunded under either and 29-36% seeing the country as having got its fair share.
More than eight in ten of those who backed Plaid Cymru in 2024 (81-86%) feel Wales has been short-changed under recent UK governments, regardless of party, a view shared by nearly half of Reform UK voters (45-48%).
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