Labour fall to just 10% in our latest Senedd figures for ITV Wales
Key takeaways
- Plaid Cymru now lead in the Senedd election race, on 37% of the vote, up seven points since September
- Reform UK are down six points to 23%, the Greens are up seven to 13%, while Labour fall four points to 10%, putting them level with the Conservatives
- More 2024 Labour voters back Plaid for the Senedd (36%) than back Labour (24%)
- In our Welsh Westminster voting intention, Plaid are on 29% of the vote, Reform UK on 25%, Labour on 13%, and the Conservatives and Greens on 12% each
Our latest YouGov/ITV Wales polling, the first since Plaid Cymru won the Caerphilly by-election last October, shows the party have now opened up a 14 point lead over Reform UK in our Senedd voting intention, with the two parties having previously been neck-and-neck.
Plaid Cymru are now on 37% of the vote, up seven points since September, with Reform UK falling back six points to 23%.
It’s now the battle for third place that looks tightest, with the Greens also seeing a surge since last autumn, now on 13%, up seven points, alongside Labour and the Conservatives on 10% each. The Liberal Democrats are on 5%.
This is Labour’s lowest Senedd vote share to date with YouGov in Wales, having fallen a further four points since September, and marks a substantial collapse from the 36% of the regional list vote they won across Wales in the 2021 election.
A mere 24% of those who backed Welsh Labour at the last general election say they intend to vote for the party in May’s Senedd election, while 36% are instead backing Rhun ap Iorwerth’s Plaid Cymru. One in six (18%), though, are undecided.
While not as drastic a desertion, just 43% of 2024 Welsh Conservatives intend to back the party in May, with a third (32%) instead currently supporting Reform UK’s Senedd push, while 10% say they’ll vote Plaid Cymru and a further 10% are undecided.
Plaid Cymru themselves are only backed by 68% of those who voted for the party in the last general election, with 9% of their 2024 voters currently unsure who’ll they vote for in May and 8% currently intending to vote Reform UK.
Plaid Cymru’s historic association with Welsh speakers does still shine through, with 59% of fluent Welsh speakers with a voting intention saying they intend to back the party in May, as well as 46% of those who can speak Welsh, but not fluently.
However, the party does appear to have broken down the language barrier somewhat, with Plaid Cymru now effectively tied with Reform UK among those who do not speak Welsh, on 28-29% of the vote each.
Plaid Cymru also making gains in Westminster voting intention
Plaid Cymru’s gains aren’t limited to the Senedd election, with the party up six points since September in our Welsh Westminster voting intention, albeit to a lower 29% share of the vote. Reform UK are down four points to 25%, having previously held a six point lead in Wales.
Labour’s woes are also apparent here, with the party down five points to 13%, roughly a third of the 37% of the vote they won in Wales at the 2024 general election.
This puts the party near-level to the Conservatives and the Greens, who are on 12% apiece, the latter representing a five point gain since last autumn. The Liberal Democrats trail the pack on 6%.
The scale of Labour’s loss in the Caerphilly by-election was attributed in part to tactical voting, with suggestions that some Labour supporters switched to Plaid Cymru in order to stop Reform UK from winning.
Plaid Cymru’s lower share in our Westminster voting intention than our Senedd one does suggest this could be at play, at least to an extent, with 22% of those saying they would vote Labour at the next election to the House of Commons intending to vote Plaid Cymru in May.
See the full results here and here
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Photo: Getty
