Nigel Farage’s party also takes the lead in Westminster voting intention in Wales for the first time
New YouGov/ITV Wales Welsh polling finds that Reform are now almost level with Plaid Cymru in our Senedd voting intention.
Nigel Farage’s party have experienced a four point boost to 29% since our previous poll in April, putting them neck and neck with Plaid on 30% (unchanged from last poll).
Over the same time period, Labour have seen their vote share fall by four points to just 14%, putting them a distant third in a nation where they came first on 36-39% of the vote at the last election in 2021.
Meanwhile, the Tories take 11% in the Senedd vote, and the Lib Dems and Greens are on 6% apiece.
Only a quarter (27%) of those who voted for Labour at the 2024 general election now say they will back the party at the next Senedd election, down from 40% in our April poll.
One in five Labour voters (21%) now say they will back Plaid, while a further 24% are unsure.
The Conservatives’ woes also continue. In April, our poll found that most 2024 Tory voters in Wales (56%) would still back the party at the Senedd election. That figure has since fallen to 36%, with 42% now intending to back Reform UK.
Between them, Plaid Cymru and Reform UK now take the majority of the vote among all age groups. In the case of 16-24 year olds, Plaid alone account for 58% of vote intention, with Labour a distant second on just 15% - Starmer’s party hold a relatively similar vote share across all age groups.
Plaid also lead among 25-49 year olds (38%), followed by Reform on 22%. Among older age groups, Reform leads on 38-39% of the vote.
The best performance the Conservatives can muster is among the over-65s, although even here just 19% of the oldest voting group say they will back the party.
Reform UK now first in Wales for Westminster voting intention
Our polling also finds that Reform UK have taken the lead for the first time in Westminster voting intention. Nigel Farage’s party has seen a five point boost to 29% of the vote since our previous poll in April.
Other parties remain on similar vote shares to those from five months ago, with Plaid Cymru taking 23%, Labour on 18%, the Tories 11%, the Lib Dems on 9% and Greens on 7%.
See the full results here (Senedd) and here (Westminster)
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Photo: Getty
