Significant numbers of voters for left wing parties would hypothetically shift their vote to try and deny Reform UK a constituency victory
Reform UK have been enjoying a positive period since the general election. Having seen their first MPs elected they have momentum in terms of the media narrative, benefitting from an unpopular Labour government and a Conservative party struggling to rebuild its support, Nigel Farage’s party have been leading – albeit by margin of error figures – in our recent voting intention figures.
However, while Reform UK and Nigel Farage are increasingly popular, they remain unpopular overall. Despite their rise in the voting intention polls, our favourability polling shows 60% of Britons have a negative view of Nigel Farage, with 56% saying the same of his party. A YouGov study last year asking the public to rank parties in order of preference found that Reform UK were by far the most likely to be ranked at or close to the bottom.
This calls into question Reform UK’s vulnerability to the same sort of tactical voting machine that geared into action last year to hand the Conservatives their worst ever election result. If left wing voters – and enough Tories – are determined to keep Reform UK out, could that prove an insurmountable obstacle for Nigel Farage and his party?
Now a new YouGov voting intention study has tested prospective tactical voting intention by asking voters which party they would back if there were only two that stood a chance of winning in their constituency.
Who would voters back in a contest between Reform UK and Labour?
At the 2024 general election there were 89 seats in which Labour came first and Reform UK placed second. Many of these will form the targets for Reform at the next election, with the party placing second in few other constituencies.
In our Labour-Reform tactical voting question, Labour holds a narrow lead over Reform, with 35% of voters saying they would back Starmer’s party and 31% Farage’s.
Both parties hold on to virtually all of their current voters in this scenario (95-100%), so key is their ability to win over the support of Conservative and Lib Dem voters.
Reform UK proves the bigger draw for current Tory voters under this match-up, with 50% saying they would back Farage’s party versus only 10% for Starmer’s – 24%, however, would stick with Badenoch’s party regardless.
Most current Lib Dems transfer their vote to Labour (58%), with only 11% preferring to side with Reform UK, while 21% stick with their original choice.
Although fewer in number, Labour also appears to be able to count on the support of 55% of current Green voters to try to help stave off the threat of Reform UK. Only 6% shift their vote to Nigel Farage’s party in a Labour-Reform contest, while 30% prefer to keep backing the Greens.
Cutting the data in a different fashion shows how the electorate effectively breaks into left-wing and right-wing voting blocs.
Reform UK’s 31% vote share in this scenario is comprised of 18% current Reform UK voters, 7% of current Tory voters who would switch to the party, but just fractional figures from other main parties – and a little support (3%) coming from those currently unsure how they’d vote or wouldn’t vote at all under current circumstances.
By contrast, the Labour vote share of 35% comprises a similar 17% who already intend to back the party, with a further 6% from the Lib Dems, 4% from the Greens. However, just 1% comes from the Conservatives, with a similar number of voters coming from minor parties, and some 4% who otherwise aren’t sure or are unlikely to vote on our normal voting question.
Who would voters back in a contest between Reform UK and the Conservatives?
Less profitable for Reform UK will be constituencies in which they came second to the Conservatives, of which there were only nine in 2024. Nevertheless, with Reform primarily drawing their support from among Conservative voters, some of these seats may become more viable targets if the Tories are unable to shore up their support.
The results of our hypothetical voting intention question where Reform UK and the Conservatives are the only ones with much chance of winning find the two right wing parties neck and neck, with the Tories on 26% to Reform’s 25%.
While Reform again manage to hold on to virtually all of their current voters (96%), this figure is notably lower for the Conservatives, at 85%. One in twelve Tories (8%) would go to Reform if they had to choose between the two parties, with only 3% of current Reform voters travelling in the opposite direction.
The Tories do manage to peel off 33% of current Lib Dem voters and 22% of those currently backing Labour – although half (48%) of this latter group would continue to back Starmer’s party regardless of their low likelihood of winning in this scenario.
By contrast, Reform UK draws only 6-8% of Labour and Lib Dem voters.
The smaller contingent of Green voters primarily prefer to stick with the party (55%), with 11% opting to back the Conservatives versus 6% for Reform UK.
This question demonstrates that practically all of the tactical voting taking place in this scenario accrues to the Conservatives. With half of the Conservatives’ 13% vote share coming from its own current backers, a further 4% comes from current Labour voters and another 4% from Lib Dems, with marginal additions from Reform and the Greens.
By contrast, the large majority of Reform’s 25% vote share is the support it already had to begin with (18%), drawing approximately 1% apiece from Tory, Labour and Lib Dem voters.
Who would voters back in a contest between Reform UK and the Lib Dems?
There are no seats in which Reform UK came second to the Lib Dems – indeed, Farage’s party won no more than 19% of the vote in any area in which the Lib Dems triumphed in 2024.
Even if they had found second place in any of these seats, these look to be more difficult to wrest away than those held by Tories and Labour MPs. In news that will doubtless cheer Ed Davey, his party proves the most likely to see off Reform UK, holding a seven point lead at 36% to 29%.
Both Reform and the Lib Dems hold on to almost all of their voters (94-97%) under this hypothetical voting scenario.
When it comes to current Labour voters, fully 63% would back the Lib Dems if it meant keeping Reform UK out, with only 6% moving in the opposite direction. A quarter (23%) would, however, continue to back the governing party.
Most Greens (59%) are also willing to transfer their vote to the Lib Dems for the sake of preventing a Reform victory. Only 4% prefer to back Farage’s party in this contest, while 28% continue to back the Greens.
Tory voters would prefer to opt for Reform UK over its left wing competitor, but at a much lower rate: 42% would go light blue versus 24% orange/yellow – and 24% would stick with their current voting choice regardless.
Looking at these figures through the prism of how much they contribute to each party’s vote share shows that the Lib Dems’ 36% comprises as many redirected Labour voters (11%) as it does current Lib Dems (10%). A further 5% of their current vote comes from the Greens, as well as 3% from the Conservatives.
While Reform UK can draw on about twice as many current Conservatives (6% of their total vote share), this is close to the total of tactical voters they are able to draw in, with only an additional 1% of their pile coming from Labour voters, and almost all of the rest coming from those already planning to back the party (18%).
Can the Conservatives expect Reform UK voters to help them beat left wing parties?
Another key tactical voting question mark is what Reform UK voters will do if the party doesn’t appear to have a chance of winning in their constituency? This will be of particular importance to the Conservatives, whose 2024 landslide defeat owes much to the loss of voters to Reform UK, and whose electoral strategy seems to be based primarily on coaxing those voters to return.
Who would voters back in a contest between the Conservatives and Labour?
While the Labour government is unpopular with the wider public, the Tories do not appear enormously able to capitalise. In the event of a Labour-Conservative contest, Kemi Badenoch’s party proves unable to take the lead, with 31% opting for the current ruling party and 28% for the previous occupants of Downing Street.
Just under half of current Reform UK voters (46%) would be willing to vote Conservative to prevent a Labour victory in their seat, with a mere 4% preferring to side with Starmer’s party. A third (34%) would continue to cast their ballot paper for Reform – a notably higher than the 24% of Conservatives who refused to change their vote in our other head to heads.
Current Lib Dem voters, for their part, break for Labour by 48% to the Tories’ 16%, with 27% staying put.
Almost half of the Greens (48%) also lend their support to Labour, compared to a mere 2% for the Tories. Four in ten (39%) prefer to keep voting Green in this scenario, however.
Our alternative look at the data shows that half of the Tories’ 28% of the vote comes from those already planning to back the party, with a further 8% coming from current Reform UK voters who don’t want to see a Labour MP elected. Another 2% comes from the Lib Dems.
For their party 17% of Labour’s 31% vote share comes from its current voters, with a further 5% drawn from the Lib Dems and 4% from the Greens – only around 1% is from Reform UK.
Who would voters back in a contest between Conservatives and the Lib Dems?
The Lib Dems hold a much more convincing lead over the Conservatives in this match-up, with Ed Davey’s party taking 33% to Kemi Badenoch’s 25%.
Nearly two thirds of current Labour voters (64%) say they would back the Lib Dems to keep the Tories out, with only 4% making the reverse pledge. A quarter (25%) would prefer to keep the red flag flying regardless, however.
Reform UK voters tend to opt for the Conservatives, but at the notably lower rate of 43%. Only 8% of current Reform voters prefer to back Ed Davey’s party, with a third (34%) again sticking to their vote for Farage and co.
Current Green voters primarily back the Lib Dems (52%), with again a mere 2% of Greens moving over to the Tories. More than a third prefer to keep voting Green regardless of their chances of winning (37%).
Again, in this scenario as much of the Lib Dems’ vote share comes from Labour (12%) as from current Lib Dem voters (10%). Their voting base also comprises 4% from the Greens and another 1% from Reform.
Meanwhile, the Tories’ share again includes 14% from their own party and 8% from Reform UK. They receive practically no other tactical voting support, with just 1% of their vote share being from Labour and less still from the Lib Dems.
What do you think about the rise of Reform UK, tactical voting in general, and everything else? Have your say, join the YouGov panel, and get paid to share your thoughts. Sign up here.
Photo: Getty
