Two thirds of Conservative to Reform UK defectors could be open to returning to the party
A year ago, the Conservatives suffered the worst general election result in their near-200-year history, winning just 24% of the vote and 121 seats. Now, they’re polling even worse, with YouGov’s first MRP since the election projecting they would win just 46 seats were an election to be held tomorrow.
Central to this is the fact that around a quarter (26%) of those who backed the Conservatives last year have now switched to Reform UK. So, what is driving these voters to switch to Nigel Farage’s party? And what is keeping the other Tories loyal to the party in spite of its seemingly diminished status?
How do the Conservative defectors differ from those who’ve stayed loyal?
Compared to the 2024 Conservatives who’ve stayed loyal to the party, those who have defected to Reform UK are older (83% being over 50 compared to 75% of loyalists), more likely to be men (58% vs 44%) and more likely to have voted Leave in the 2016 referendum (80% vs 61%).
This contrasts with those 2024 Tories who now don’t know who to vote for or who have switched to the left-of-centre major parties, who are more similar in profile to loyalist Tories, though with both groups being more likely to be women (64-66%) than those sticking with the party.
What do Conservative voters see as the most important issues?
While all 2024 Conservative voters see immigration as one of the top issues facing the country, this is especially the case among Conservative to Reform UK defectors, nine in ten of whom (88%) see it as one the most pressing issues at the present time. This compares to 64% of steadfast Conservatives, as well as 56% of those who now don’t know who to vote for, being the most commonly cited issue in both cases.
Additionally, nearly half of Conservatives who’ve defected to Labour, the Lib Dems or the Greens (47%) say immigration is one of the biggest problems facing the country – however, this group are slightly more likely to consider the NHS to be a top issue (52%).
The top five issues are consistent among all groups of 2024 Conservative voters, with the economy, NHS, defence and cost of living joining immigration as key Tory concerns. Each is seen as a top issue by 35-42% of those sticking with the Conservatives, 27-37% of those who’ve switched to Reform UK and 34-41% of those who don’t know who to vote for.
Why have some Conservative voters defected to Reform UK?
With Reform UK defectors particularly preoccupied by immigration as an issue, it is no surprise to see it cited as one of the biggest reasons for defecting, with 56% saying their trust in Reform over the Tories on the issue is a top-three incentive for realigning themselves.
But Nigel Farage’s party has other draws for those who were once Tories. A belief that Reform UK are better at standing up for ‘people like you’ is a top reason for switching for 36% of defectors, while 25% say a key reason is that Reform UK are closer to their values.
Additionally, a quarter of Reform defectors cite a belief that the party are better placed to win the next election (24%), while one in five (21%) say it is because Nigel Farage would be a good prime minister. A similar number (20%) have primarily been drawn by a feeling that Reform UK have proven themselves a better opposition to the government than the Tories.
But not all the defections have been wholly enthusiastic. Four in ten defectors to Reform UK (41%) say they don’t particularly love the party, it’s just that the other parties are all worse.
Some are also more specifically dissatisfied with the current state of the Tories, with 11% saying a belief the Tories are too left-wing or liberal is a key reason they’ve deserted the party, while 10% say a dislike of Kemi Badenoch’s leadership of the Conservatives is what has caused their change of allegiance.
Can the Conservatives win back their losses to Reform UK?
The key question for the Conservatives going forwards is whether or not they are able to win back these losses, and there is some evidence they could. Two thirds of those they’ve lost to Reform UK (67%) say they are likely to consider voting Conservative in future, a notable contrast to the mere 13% of Labour to Reform UK defectors who are open to returning.
Six in ten of those 2024 Conservatives who now don’t know who to vote for (58%) are also likely to consider voting Tory at the next election, also a higher rate than the Labour equivalents (42%).
But there is also the risk of further defections: 32% of those currently sticking with the Conservatives say they are likely to consider voting Reform UK in a future election, with 14% saying so of the Lib Dems.
One of the questions being asked in Conservative circles is whether an alternative leader could be better placed to win back the voters they’ve lost than Kemi Badenoch.
While a third of Conservative losses to Reform UK (34%) have an unfavourable opinion of Badenoch, she does have an overall positive net rating of +20 among the group. While this is half of her +39 net rating among steadfast Conservatives, it does notably contrast with Keir Starmer’s -73 net rating among Labour to Reform UK defectors and suggests she does not personally stand in the way to winning at least some of them back.
Nonetheless, Badenoch is clearly less popular among losses to Reform UK than Nigel Farage, who has a net rating of +87, as well as former prime minister Boris Johnson, whose net rating of +53 among defectors to Reform UK is actually better than his rating of +45 among those sticking with the Conservatives.
Johnson also does notably well among Conservatives who currently don’t know who to back, being the only politician polled who has a net positive rating among them (+13). It is here Badenoch appears to be more of an issue, holding a net rating of -15 among the now don’t knows, as well as a rating of -16 among those lost to Labour, the Lib Dems or the Greens.
What is keeping some Conservatives loyal to the party?
Of course, around half of 2024 Conservatives have stayed loyal to the party. For many, this is a simple case of principles, with 44% of steadfast Tories saying that the party being the one closest to their values is a key reason they’ve stuck with them.
The Conservatives’ reputation for economic management remains a selling point, with 33% of those who’ve continued to support the party since the last election saying it is one of the top reasons they still intend to vote Tory. One in five (19%) also identify a belief that the last Conservative government did a good job as one of their main reasons for not changing their minds.
One in six steadfast Conservatives (18%) say the fact they like their local MP or candidate is one of the top reasons that has kept them with the party, while one in seven (14%) say a belief that Kemi Badenoch would make a good prime minister is a key reason they have stayed loyal.
But for many, it’s more a case of better the devil you know. A top reason for sticking around for 43% is that, while they don’t love the Conservatives, they believe all the other parties are worse. One in five (20%) say they simply can’t imagine voting for anybody else, while having a negative opinion of Reform UK is a top reason to continue with the Tories for 17% of loyalists.
One in twenty Conservative loyalists (5%) say a top reason they are remaining with the party is because, even though they actually prefer another party, they do not believe that party could win.
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