Keir Starmer’s advantage over Nigel Farage has roughly halved in the last three months
While Labour continue to trail in voting intention polls and Keir Starmer is now seen significantly less favourably than Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, one silver lining for Labour figures has been that – when push comes to shove – voters would rather Starmer was prime minister than Farage. Indeed, our May head-to-heads showed that Britons felt Starmer would make the better prime minister by 44% to 29%.
But while Starmer retains a lead against the Reform UK leader, our latest figures show an eight point drop in the prime minister’s advantage, with Britons now splitting 35% to 28%.
The prime minister’s lead over opposition leader Kemi Badenoch has changed less, though there has been a drop in preference for either holding the top job. Three in ten (30%) think Starmer would make a better PM than Badenoch, down from 36% in May, while just 20% favour Badenoch over Starmer, down from 25%.
There’s a similar story when Britons are faced with a choice between Starmer and Lib Dem leader Ed Davey, with the public now evenly split 20% to 20%, down from 27% to 25% three months ago.
It’s not just Starmer’s advantage over Farage that has weakened. In May, a face-off between Davey and Farage yielded a 14 point advantage for the Lib Dem leader; now he leads by just 31% to 27%. And while Badenoch previously beat Farage in a head-to-head by 29% to 25%, just 21% of the public now think the Tory leader would make the better prime minister, with 23% instead backing Farage.
But British politics could soon have some new leaders, with the Green Party currently undertaking a leadership election, as well as the emergence of a new left-wing party under former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. So how would Corbyn fare against the existing party leaders?
When given the choice between Starmer and Corbyn, 27% of Britons opt for the current Labour leader, while 22% prefer his predecessor in the position. A head-to-head between Davey and Corbyn produces a similar five point lead, with the public favouring Davey 25% to 20%.
The public is more divided when given a choice between Corbyn and more right-wing leaders, with Britons split 30% to 29% between whether Farage or Corbyn would make a better prime minister and 24% to 27% between Badenoch and Corbyn.
Who do voters think would make the best prime minister?
Keir Starmer’s weakened lead against Nigel Farage comes from a growing reluctance of those who voted for left-of-centre parties last year to back the prime minister. While 73% of both 2024 Labour and Lib Dem voters backed Starmer over Farage in May, this has fallen to just 65% and 51% respectively. The number of 2024 Greens who would choose Starmer has fallen from 66% to 57%.
Also likely to be difficult reading for Downing Street is the fact that just four in ten 2024 Labour voters (40%) are willing to back the prime minister against Jeremy Corbyn, with 30% instead thinking Starmer’s predecessor as Labour leader would do a better job.
Also on the decline is the view among Tories that Kemi Badenoch is preferable to Farage. In May, 38% of 2024 Conservatives saw her as a better PM than the Reform UK leader, whom 33% backed; now, just 29% see the Tory leader as the better of the pair, with 36% opting for Farage. Additionally, the number of 2024 Lib Dems backing Badenoch over Farage has roughly halved from 47% to 24%.
Who do Britons think would be a good prime minister?
Being the relatively ‘better’ prime minister in a pairing isn’t the same as being a good prime minister outright. Indeed, just 9% of Britons say Keir Starmer has been a great or good prime minister so far, with most Britons (55%) saying he has been a poor or even terrible PM. Three in ten (30%) see Starmer as having been ‘average’ in office.
Given that last June, before he became prime minister, just 23% of Britons expected Starmer to be a great or good prime minister, it might not look like the biggest disappointment. But 54% of those then anticipating voting Labour expected him to be an above average premier, something just 18% of 2024 Labour voters believe he has succeeded in being during his first 14 months. Indeed, this is less than the 31% of Labour voters who would rate his premiership so far as poor or even terrible.
But is there anybody Britons think would be a good prime minister? Of the figures polled, Nigel Farage scores highest, but this is still a view held by just 24% of Britons, with more than double (52%) expecting him to be a poor or terrible prime minister.
Similarly, while 19% of Britons think that Jeremy Corbyn would be great or good prime minister, around half of the public (51%) expect a Corbyn premiership would end poorly or terribly.
One in five Britons (20%) believe that mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham has the potential to be a great or good prime minister, something 13% of Britons believe of Ed Davey and 11% of current deputy prime minister Angela Rayner.
Only 8% of Britons believe that opposition leader Kemi Badenoch would be a decent prime minister, with more than five times as many (43%) expecting her to be a bad one.
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Photo: Getty
