YouGov looks at how the country would vote today, across factors from gender, age, education, class, income, housing tenure and previous voting record
In the aftermath of last year’s seismic general election, YouGov used a massive sample of British voters to reveal how Britain really voted, identifying the key political divides among Britons, such as age, education and EU referendum vote.
With voting intention polls over the last year having shown changes in party allegiances for millions of voters, we have now used a sample of over 17,000 Britons to examine how Britons would vote now, including where the divides have remained and where new ones have been created.
How would men and women vote, a year since the 2024 election?
While voting differences by gender might be more muted than some other social factors, there are still some notable differences between men and women. This is particularly the case with Reform UK, with Nigel Farage’s party doing seven points better among men (31%) than women (24%). This is partially on the right wing of British politics by the Conservatives having more support among women (19% vs 15%).
In the 2015, 2017 and 2019 elections, Labour did better among women than men, though this gender gap had largely vanished by the time of the last election. Now, however, Labour are doing four points worse among women voters, with just 22% backing the party, compared to 26% of men.
The Greens hold more support among women than men (13% vs 9%), with the Lib Dems holding more similar levels of support among women (16%) and men (14%).
How would Britons vote, by age, a year since the 2024 election?
It’s no secret that age has been one of the key dividing lines in recent British elections, with this showing no signs of disappearing amid the changing party system.
Support for both Reform UK and the Conservatives largely increases with age, with the former leading among over 50s age groups, including holding a 37% share among Britons in their sixties. While the Conservatives are still able to take a third of the vote (33%) among the over 70s, they remain in single digits (7-9%) and in fifth-place among the under 30s.
Labour continues to do better with younger voters, though this is at a similar third of the vote (33-34%) among all under 40 age groups, with no peak among the youngest voters. Instead, it is the Greens who show a clearer relationship between support increasing as age decreases, now taking 26% of the vote among 18-24 year olds.
Likelihood to intend to vote Labour falls to 22% among voters in their fifties, 17% for those in their sixties and just 11% with the over 70s, putting them on a level more similar to the Lib Dems, who win a similar 14-17% among all age groups.
Within age groups, stark gender gaps can exist. While Labour lead the Greens 37% to 18% among 18-24 year old men, there is a much more even split among young women with 34% backing the Greens to Labour’s 30%.
Young women are one of Reform UK’s weakest groups, with just 7% supporting Nigel Farage’s party, half the rate of men in the same age group (14%). Despite much mythologising about Reform UK’s appeal to young men, we find that they have a higher level of support among older men, with 40% of those over 65 backing the party.
The gender divide among right-wing parties is clearer among the oldest votes: while Reform UK hold a 13 point lead among men over 65, they are tied with the Conservatives among women of the same age. But despite the Conservatives generally doing better among women than men, this isn’t true in the youngest generation, with just 5% of 18-24 year old women supporting the Tories, versus 9% of similarly aged men.
How would Britons vote, by education level, a year since the 2024 election?
Someone’s level of education is increasingly one of the strongest indicators of how they would vote. This is particularly true of Reform UK, who are currently winning 43% of the vote among those whose highest level of education attained is GCSE or lower, more than three times that among those who hold a university degree (13%).
Labour continue to lead among those with this highest level of education, on 32% of the vote, relative to 15% of those with the lowest levels of attainment. This pattern is also true of the Lib Dems (19% vs 11%) and the Greens (14% vs 6%).
The opposite is true of the Conservatives, who are currently winning 20% of the vote of Britons with a GCSE or less as their highest qualification and 14% of those with a higher education.
How would Britons vote, by housing tenure, a year since the 2024 election?
For a long time, social renters (i.e. those who rent from a council or housing association) were one of Labour’s key voter groups. Indeed, at the last election, Labour held a 21 point lead over Reform UK and a 28 point lead over the Conservatives among them. Now, however, Reform UK hold a substantial 18 point lead among social renters, at 39%, with Labour on just 21% of the vote.
Labour still lead among those renting from private landlords, taking 28% of the vote, versus Reform UK on 21% of the vote and the Greens on 17% of the vote. The Greens also do well among those living with family or friends, taking 20% of the vote there.
Reform UK also lead the Conservatives 32% to 25% among the Tories’ traditional group of those who fully own their house, while Labour lead Reform UK 27% to 23% among those currently paying off their mortgage.
How would Britons vote, by social grade, income and working status, a year since the 2024 election?
A class divide was once the defining split of British politics, before becoming increasingly minimal in recent elections. But Reform UK have shaken this up, with their claim that it is them, not Labour, who are the party of the working class borne out.
Reform UK are currently polling at 35% among C2DE Britons, those classed as living in a working-class household. This gives them a significant 16 point lead over Labour among the group, and compares to them taking just 21% of the vote among ABC1s (those in middle-class households), where they trail Labour by six points.
The Lib Dems and Greens also perform slightly better among middle class Britons than the working classes, while the Conservatives gain a similar tally of voters (16-18%) among both social grades.
A not dissimilar pattern can be seen by looking at household income, with Labour’s vote now increasing as income increases: 31% of those living in households with an income of over £70,000 a year intend to vote for the party, compared to 19% of those in households earning less than £20,000.
The numbers are near flipped for Reform UK, with 32% of the lowest income voters backing the party, compared to 17% of those in the highest income households.
Support for neither the Conservatives nor the Greens shows a clear relationship with income, while the Lib Dems perform best among the highest earners.
Labour’s related claim to be the party of workers holds up better, though is marginal: for the 27% of voters currently in work who back Labour, 24% favour Reform UK, with similar numbers (12-16%) supporting the other three major parties.
Reform UK and the Conservatives do better among retirees, currently taking 36% and 28% of the grey vote respectively, while doing poorly with students (7-9%), among whom Labour and the Greens are the top two on 33% and 27%.
Unemployed voters currently exhibit a near three-way tie (22-26%) between Labour, Reform UK and the Greens.
How would Britons vote, by political attention level, a year since the 2024 election?
Reform UK are polling better amongst those who pay the least attention to politics, with 34% who those who pay a self-described low level of attention to politics currently supporting the party, compared to 23% of those who devote a high amount of time to following politics. The reverse is true for Labour, who are supported by 29% of high attention voters versus 18% of low attention ones.
How would Britons vote, by EU referendum vote, a year since the 2024 election?
Nine years on, the EU referendum still casts a long shadow over British voting patterns. A majority of Leave-backing voters (51%) currently support Reform UK, roughly double the 25% who intend to vote Conservative. Just 9% of Leavers support Labour, putting them on a similar level to the more pro-EU Lib Dems (8%).
No party is quite as dominant among Remainers, though Labour lead with 35% of the vote, followed by the Lib Dems on 22% and the Greens and the Conservatives on 14% each.
How many voters have changed their minds in the year since the 2024 election?
Conservative and Labour voters are the least likely to have stuck with the choice they made in the 2024 general election, with just half of those who backed either party last July (51-52%) still intending to vote for that party, compared to 62% of 2024 Lib Dems, two thirds of 2024 Green voters (68%) and 84% of 2024 Reform UK voters.
The largest single group of defections is from the Conservatives to Reform UK, with 26% of those who endorsed Rishi Sunak’s campaign in last year’s election now switching to Nigel Farage’s party. A further 4% of 2024 Conservatives have moved to the Lib Dems.
Labour’s losses have been more scattered, with 9% of their 2024 coalition now saying they’d back the Lib Dems, 9% opting for the Greens and 7% favouring Reform UK. Despite the most important electoral movement once having been between the Tories and Labour, just 2% of 2024 Labour voters have switched to the Conservatives.
Just under a quarter of 2024 Lib Dems (23%) have switched to other parties in the last year, though with no dominant end point with 4-7% going to each of the other four major parties. One in six 2024 Greens (16%) have crossed the floor to other parties, primarily going to Labour and the Lib Dems (5% each), while just 8% of 2024 Reform UK voters have outright defected.
One in eight 2024 Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem voters (12-13%) currently say they don’t know who they would vote for, a rate roughly double that of Reform UK voters (6%).
Where have parties gained and lost most in the year since the 2024 election?
Reform UK’s gains are largely ‘proportional’ to their 2024 result, with support roughly doubling among each group. This means that they have gained most ground among groups where they we already stronger, such as those who voted Leave (up 23 points), the over 70s (up 20) and those with a lower level of education (up 20). But the party has still made small but sizeable gains among their weaker groups, including those who voted Remain (up five) and those with a degree (also up five).
Labour, by contrast, have lost voters among all social groups. Their worst losses have been among voters in their 40s (down 16), those in working class households (down 14) and women (down 13).
And the Conservatives are likewise down across most groups, although this is less notable among younger Britons – of whom they had few to lose in the first place. The backbone of Conservative support has been older Britons for some years now, and it is among this group that they have seen the worst losses, falling by 13pts among the over 70s and by 12pts among people in their 60s.
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