How would each of our groups vote if there were an election being held now?
Earlier this week, YouGov released our Cost of Living segmentation model, which uses a machine learning algorithm to group the British population into five distinct groups based on their views on, and experiences of, the ongoing cost of living crisis.
Our first article looked at the social composition of the groups; now we take a look at their political composition.
Three of the five groups – Worried and Suffering, Squeezed but Coping, and Unsettled Withstanders – are currently backing Labour by rates of 53-58%. The Conservatives only have a small toehold in these groups, taking 17% of Squeezed by Coping and 11% of the other two groups.
The other two groups – Cautiously Hopeful Strugglers and Calm and Comfortable – tend to back the Tories, although the party fails to secure a majority among these groups, at 42% in the case of the former and 47% for the latter. Labour have a significant presence within these groups, with 26% of the Calm and Comfortable currently intending to back Starmer’s party, and 30% of Cautiously Hopeful Strugglers saying the same.
Across all groups, as in the whole population, there has been a significant decline in support for the Conservatives since the 2019 general election.
The starkest drops have come among two of the worst affected by the cost of living crisis groups: the Worried and Suffering (-25 points) and the Squeezed but Coping (-22 points). Indeed, the Squeezed but Coping had split evenly between Labour (38%) and the Tories (39%) at the last general election – Labour’s lead over their rivals now stands at fully 36 points.
This is particularly important as the Squeezed but Coping are the largest of the groups, accounting for around one in four Britons overall.
The Conservatives actually won a majority of the vote among the Cautiously Hopeful Strugglers (59%) and Calm and Comfortable (62%) groups in 2019, but have since seen their vote share fall by 17 points and 15 points respectively.
The Unsettled Withstanders were the least likely to vote for the Conservatives in 2019, the party has seen a similar drop in support among this group, at -16 points.
Labour has generally been the primary beneficiary of the drop in Tory support, experiencing increases in vote share of between five and twenty points across the segments.
With the cost of living crisis set to potentially become even worse for many Brits in the coming months, the Conservatives may well find themselves even further behind among those struggling most to make ends meet.