Roughly half of French and Italians feel the EU is going in the wrong direction, though support for leaving remains in the minority
To celebrate the launch of YouGov’s new European Political monthly survey, which is conducted in nine key EU member states (Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania and Spain), we can reveal divergent attitudes towards the EU itself, with publics in the three largest members particularly negative about the organisation’s direction.
In fact, a majority of French people (54%) and half of Italians (50%) believe the EU is generally heading in the wrong direction, relative to only around a fifth in either country (18-22%) feeling the Union is on a positive path. Germans are a little less sceptical, but still tend to feel the EU is going in the wrong direction by 43% to 33%.
Poles and Romanians are more divided, with 41-42% seeing the EU as going in the wrong direction and 36% in the right direction, while the question near-evenly splits the public in the Netherlands (37% to 37%) and Spain (39% to 38%).
Attitudes in Denmark and Lithuania are more positive, with just 24% feeling the EU is heading off course, relative to around half (50-52%) thinking it is moving in a positive direction.
Scepticism towards the EU in France and Italy doesn’t just concern where the organisation is going, but where it’s been. Just 21% of French people and 30% of Italians believe that membership of the EU has made their countries better off, relative to 35% of those in France and 39% of those in Italy believing the EU has made them worse off overall.
This compares to the public in the other seven EU states polled believing that membership has made them better off by a ratio of at least two to one, with belief their country has benefitted from being in EU ranging from 45% in Germany and 52-53% in Romania, Poland and Spain, though to 67% in Denmark and 71% in Lithuania.
Nonetheless, despite the significant negativity towards the EU in France and Italy, support for leaving is limited, with just 27% of the French and Italian publics saying they would vote to leave the EU if such a referendum was being held, while nearly twice as many (49%) say they would vote to stay in.
A quarter of Poles (26%) also say they would vote to leave the EU, though this is against 60% who would back remaining in the EU if a referendum was held.
Continued membership of the EU is also backed by 58% of Romanians, 64% of Dutch people, 66% of Germans, 67% of Spaniards, 69% of Lithuanians and 71% of Danes. In these countries, no more than a fifth (11-20%) would back leaving the EU in a hypothetical referendum.
Scepticism towards the EU is consistently higher among voters for far-right parties
Of course, substantial political divides over the EU exist in each country, with negativity towards the EU consistently higher among supporters of far-right parties. In the seven largest EU member states, at least 58% of voters for the main far-right party believe the EU is heading in the wrong direction, compared to no more than 44% of supporters of other major parties.
Negativity is most consistently high in Italy, with 40% of voters for the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) and 58% of voters for the far-right Brothers of Italy (FdI) believing the EU is on the wrong path. By contrast, in Germany there is a substantial gap between voters for the far-right AfD (82%) and supporters of the other three major parties (11-32%).
But voters for far-right parties in these countries are less consistent on the question of actually leaving the EU, even if still more likely to support recreating Brexit (at least 35%) than supporters of other major parties (no more than 27%).
At one end of the scale are voters for Germany’s AfD, France’s Marine Le Pen and the Dutch VVD, majorities of whom (53-59%) back leaving the EU, relative to just 21-24% who back their country staying in the Union. At the other end, supporters of Romania’s AUR and Spain’s VOX tend to want their country to stay in the EU by 47-48% to 35-36%.
Italian PM Giorgia Meloni’s FdI party sit in the middle, with their voters divided 38% to 41% on the question of remaining or leaving the EU.
Full results coming soon
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