To celebrate the launch of YouGov’s new European Political monthly survey, a new survey, a new YouGov study of seven EU countries – Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Lithuania, Poland and Spain – examines public attitudes to NATO and wider defence-related issues affecting the continent.
What do Europeans see as the biggest threats facing the continent?
Unsurprisingly, given the ongoing war in Ukraine, Russian aggression tops the list of threats facing Europe for Germans, Poles, Danes and Lithuanians, as well as coming second in France. However, Russian aggression only places fifth in Spain and sixth in Italy.
These latter two countries are typically more likely to have chosen the more nondescript “armed conflicts” option than other nations – this is indeed the most common answer for Italians.
The single top concern for Spaniards and the French turns out to be immigration, an issue which features in the top three for all countries (except Denmark, where it places fifth).
The results show a couple of stand out concerns for individual countries. First are cyber attacks in Denmark, where 36% listed as one of the top three issues, significantly ahead of the 9-19% everywhere else.
Second is the issue of corruption, which 30% of Spaniards cited but only 5-16% in any other country.
Do Europeans see the US, China and Russia as hostile?
While the US has worried many with threats to annex Greenland from Denmark, when asked how to describe relations between the EU and other countries, China is generally seen in more negative terms than the US.
That is not always the case, however, with Spaniards being actually more likely to see China as being friendly towards the EU than the US. And while China is still seen in more negative terms than the US by Germans and Danes, they are substantially more likely to see the US as unfriendly or hostile to the EU than to consider it friendly or an ally.
In addition, France and Italy are divided in their views on the US relationship with the EU – only in Poland and Lithuania is the most common view of that they are friendly or an ally.
Russia is much more unequivocally seen as being either unfriendly or a hostile threat to the EU by the majority in all countries. Indeed, when asked a more specific question on whether Russia is a threat to the rest of Europe outside of Ukraine, 38-59% consider the country to be a “major threat”. If we include those who see the country as a moderate threat, these figures rise to 64-84%. Only 2-12% in any country don’t think Russia poses a threat to the rest of Europe at all.
Where do Europeans stand on NATO?
There is majority support for NATO membership in all countries, although the extent differs by notable margins. Those countries on closer to the eastern flank are most supportive, with 87% of Danes, 84% of Poles and 82% of Lithuanians backing continued membership.
Three quarters of Germans (73%) also support NATO membership, but only slightly more than half do in France (55%), Italy (55%) and Spain (53%).
Belief that NATO membership is important to national security tends to mirror support for membership, with two notable exceptions. Despite only 53% of Spaniards supporting membership, 71% say that membership is important to Spain’s defence.
Meanwhile in France, just 29% see NATO membership as important to their defence, despite 55% supporting being part of the alliance.
Donald Trump has been famously irate with European countries for not paying their way when it comes to NATO. When it comes to increasing their financial contribution to NATO, we again see a range of different views across the continent. The majority in Denmark (74%), Poland (65%) and Lithuania (54%) support boosting their fundings, as do pluralities of Germans (48%) and Spaniards (46%).
However, only a quarter of Italians and French people (both 27%) back increasing their financial contribution to NATO.
On the question of EU defence spending more broadly, we see similar divisions, with Danes Germans and Poles most likely to say that the EU as a whole is not spending enough on defence, while Italians generally thinking too much money is being spent on defence.
Europeans are split on whether the US has a responsibility to protect Europe, but most support greater defence cooperation
While there is much uncertainty about the US-EU relationship, most Europeans in all countries surveyed (53-81%) support greater cooperation between the USA and the EU on issues of defence and security.
Whether the USA has an obligation to protect Europe proves more divisive. Lithuanians are the most likely to say it does, at 61%, followed by Danes on 52%.
Germans are divided, while other countries tend to think the US does not have a responsibility to defend the continent, especially in Spain (54%) and France (50%).
Should defence and security decisions be made by the EU or member states?
On the broader subject of whether defence decision making should be made by the EU or by member nations, opinion differs more greatly. Only in Spain do the majority think decisions should be made at the EU level (57%). Lithuania, Denmark and France prove divided on the subject, while Germans, Poles and Italians tend to want member countries to retain their control of this area.
Most countries surveyed support the creation of a European army
In most countries we surveyed, support for a European army significantly outweighs opposition. Lithuanians (61%) are the most enthusiastic, alongside Germans (59%), and Spaniards (58%). There is also majority support in Denmark (56%) and France (55%), while a plurality of Poles also back a unified force (45%).
Only the Italians stand out, being divided 41%-44% over the proposal.
Note that this question was asked to a random half of the sample in each country, with the other half being asked the shorter question “Would you support or oppose the creation of a European army”. The results of this test – to see whether being explicit that the European army would include soldiers from the respondent’s own country – found virtually no difference between the questions, so we have only displayed the one set of results above.
Full results coming soon
Learn more about YouGov's new European Political monthly survey product
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