Senedd Voting Intention: Lab 36%, Con 29%, Plaid 20% (2-4 May)

Adam McDonnellAssociate Director of Political and Social Research
Sarah Prescott-SmithPolitical Research Executive
May 05, 2021, 5:00 AM UTC

Final YouGov Senedd voting intention figures

Our final voting intention figures ahead of the 2021 Senedd (Welsh Parliament) election show Labour with a seven point lead over the Conservatives in the constituency vote.

The constituency vote headline figures are: Labour 36% (+1 since mid-April), Conservative 29% (+5), Plaid Cymru 20% (-4), Reform UK 4% (no change), and Lib Dem 3% (no change).

Labour’s vote share is virtually unchanged since our last poll in mid-April, while the Conservatives have increased their vote share by five points in the constituency vote, narrowing the Labour lead to seven points. Some of this increase looks to be 2019 Tory voters moving from “Don’t know” in April to Conservative now. Plaid Cymru, on the other hand, have seen their vote share fall by four points and slipping the party in to third place.

In the list vote, there is a similar story, with Labour six points ahead of the Conservatives, and Plaid Cymru not far behind in third.

The regional list vote headline figures are: Labour 31% (-2), Conservative 25% (+3), Plaid Cymru 21% (-2), Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party 7% (no change), Green 5% (no change), Lib Dem 4% (no change), and Reform UK 2% (no change). Were it replicated at the election, this 7% result for the ‘Abolish’ party would possibly be enough for them to win their first seats in the Senedd.

It is worth noting that all polls come with a margin of error of around 3%, which means the actual figure for each party could be 3 points higher or lower than the figures in our final poll. In this election, small changes in vote share could make big differences in terms of the make up of the Senedd and so the results should be treated cautiously when drawing conclusions.

Finally, there are still one in ten people who are unsure how they will vote. Whether these undecided voters do end up casting a ballot this Thursday could also make a difference to the final outcome.

See the full results here