As with all good polling organisations, we at YouGov are constantly looking to update our methods when we believe changes need to be made.
Having evaluated our performance in Wales for the European Elections, it became evident that minor adjustments were needed to continue our hard-won record for accuracy. To evaluate any changes, a survey of our Welsh panel was undertaken and original analysis conducted amongst over 4,000 Welsh respondents. Our initial analysis, and subsequent analysis of a smaller, more targeted sample, resulted in us making two minor changes to our sampling targets. The two changes are as follows:
• Reducing the Party Identity figures for Labour and Liberal Democrats and assigning these predominantly to others and those with no Party Identity.
• Updating newspaper readership figures to take into account changes since their original formation in 2010.
The result of these changes is that we will tend to see somewhat lower vote shares (both in Westminster and Assembly) for Labour and the Liberal Democrats in YouGov polls in Wales, while the Conservatives and UKIP are likely to benefit.
| Westminster Vote Intention | New Weightings | Old Weightings |
|---|---|---|
Labour | 39 | 42 |
Conservative | 24 | 23 |
LibDem | 5 | 6 |
Plaid | 12 | 12 |
UKIP | 15 | 13 |
Others | 6 | 5 |
| NAW Constit. Vote Intention | New Weightings | Old Weightings |
|---|---|---|
Labour | 36 | 38 |
Conservative | 22 | 21 |
LibDem | 5 | 6 |
Plaid | 19 | 20 |
UKIP | 12 | 10 |
Others | 4 | 4 |
| NAW List. Vote Intention | New Weightings | Old Weightings |
|---|---|---|
Labour | 32 | 34 |
Conservative | 20 | 23 |
LibDem | 5 | 5 |
Plaid | 17 | 18 |
UKIP | 17 | 15 |
Others | 3 | 3 |
