Eve-of-election predictions

YouGov
May 06, 2010, 3:00 AM GMT+0

Our final eve-of-election poll results for the Sun show the Conservatives ahead on 35, with Labour and the Liberal Democrats neck-and-neck on 28.

British voting intention results:

  • Con 35% (+2 since 2005)
  • Lab 28% (-8)
  • Lib Dem 28 (+5)
  • Others 9 (+1)

Sample: 6,483, polled on 4th and 5th May 2010.

On these figures, Labour is back to its 1983 support, under Michael Foot.



We also polled nearly 2,000 respondents in Labour-held marginal seats that would go to the Conservatives on a swing of 3-7%:

  • Con 36% (+3 since 2005)
  • Lab 33% (-11)
  • Lib Dem 23% (+6)
  • Others 8% (+2)

Sample: 1,909, polled on 4th and 5th May 2010.

This means the swing from Labour to the Conservatives is 5% nationally, but 7% in key Labour marginals.

On these figures I would expect the Conservatives to gain around 100 seats from Labour.

It will be a closer race for second place in overall votes, and it’s harder to call Con-Lib and Lab-Lib marginals. But I would expect Liberal Democrats to gain more from the Tories than they lose - and for them to gain up to 20 seats from Labour.

Overall, my prediction of the outcome tomorrow is:

  • Conservative: 300-310 seats
  • Labour: 230-240
  • Lib Dem: 75-85
  • Others: around 30

If that’s right, then David Cameron is likely to be Prime Minister by Friday night, at the head of a minority government.


Peter Kellner

President of YouGov