Our final eve-of-election poll results for the Sun show the Conservatives ahead on 35, with Labour and the Liberal Democrats neck-and-neck on 28.
British voting intention results:
- Con 35% (+2 since 2005)
- Lab 28% (-8)
- Lib Dem 28 (+5)
- Others 9 (+1)
Sample: 6,483, polled on 4th and 5th May 2010.
On these figures, Labour is back to its 1983 support, under Michael Foot.
We also polled nearly 2,000 respondents in Labour-held marginal seats that would go to the Conservatives on a swing of 3-7%:
- Con 36% (+3 since 2005)
- Lab 33% (-11)
- Lib Dem 23% (+6)
- Others 8% (+2)
Sample: 1,909, polled on 4th and 5th May 2010.
This means the swing from Labour to the Conservatives is 5% nationally, but 7% in key Labour marginals.
On these figures I would expect the Conservatives to gain around 100 seats from Labour.
It will be a closer race for second place in overall votes, and it’s harder to call Con-Lib and Lab-Lib marginals. But I would expect Liberal Democrats to gain more from the Tories than they lose - and for them to gain up to 20 seats from Labour.
Overall, my prediction of the outcome tomorrow is:
- Conservative: 300-310 seats
- Labour: 230-240
- Lib Dem: 75-85
- Others: around 30
If that’s right, then David Cameron is likely to be Prime Minister by Friday night, at the head of a minority government.
Peter Kellner
President of YouGov
