The contest between Bridget Phillipson and Lucy Powell remains wide open, while a significant minority of members question whether Starmer should lead Labour into the next general election
The 15 months since the general election have not been easy on Labour, with the government so unpopular that even a majority (53%) of those who voted for the party in 2024 now disapproving of their record so far.
Were an election to be held tomorrow, YouGov’s latest MRP projects that nearly two-thirds of Labour MPs would lose their seats. There is even talk on the backbenches of Keir Starmer being replaced as party leader.
But how do Labour members, who would likely decide the outcome of such a contest, feel things have gone? New YouGov polling of 704 Labour members reveals their views on the government, as well as the upcoming deputy leadership election.
How do Labour members view the government?
Labour members are far more upbeat about the government’s record in office than Labour voters, with 71% of members believing the party have done a good job in government to date, compared to 26% who feel they’ve done badly.
The membership is similarly positive about prime minister Keir Starmer and chancellor Rachel Reeves, with around six in ten (60-63%) believing they’ve done good jobs so far, though a sizeable minority (33-34%) believe they have performed poorly.
This is a noticeably better performance review than either would get from Labour voters, who feel Starmer has done badly as prime minister by 55% to 37%, and with just 18% believing Rachel Reeves has done a good job at the Treasury.
Neither, though, are the memberships’ stars of the cabinet. Energy secretary Ed Miliband is the most positively viewed minister, with nearly nine in ten Labour members (86%) having a favourable opinion of the former leader, with 11% seeing him unfavourably.
Around three quarters of members (74-76%) hold favourable opinions of foreign secretary Yvette Cooper, culture secretary Lisa Nandy, and education secretary Bridget Phillipson, while 15-19% have an unfavourable view of any of the three.
No cabinet minister has a negative net favourability rating among Labour members, though there is more animosity towards some than others. Beyond the third (33-34%) with unfavourable opinions of Starmer or Reeves, three in ten (29%) see deputy prime minister and justice secretary David Lammy and health secretary Wes Streeting in negative lights, with 25% doing so of science secretary Liz Kendall as well.
Who do Labour members support in the 2025 deputy leadership election?
Next week, ballots will open in the election for Labour’s next deputy leader, triggered by Angela Rayner’s resignation at the start of the month after being found to have breached the ministerial code for underpaying stamp duty. By 60% to 34%, Labour members believe Rayner was right to resign.
At present, it looks like there is still all to play for in the contest to succeed Rayner. At the time of fieldwork on 19-25 September, 35% of Labour members said they planned to vote for former Commons leader Lucy Powell, slightly ahead of education secretary Bridget Phillipson on 28%. Crucially, however, three in ten members (30%) said they were still unsure who they’d vote for.
While the outcome of the leadership election remains uncertain, the contest does at least not appear to be particularly fractious, with roughly seven in ten Labour members (67-72%) saying either candidate would make a good deputy leader of the party.
This includes 84% of Phillipson supporters saying that Powell would make a good leader and 71% of Powell backers saying the same of Phillipson. Nonetheless, 17% of Powell supporters do say Phillipson would be a bad deputy leader.
With no candidate from the left of the party nominated, there has been some criticism of the election being between too narrow a range of candidates, with the Unite union backing neither, saying the election “does not offer the alternative that Britain needs”.
Roughly half of Labour members (53%) feel the field of views represented by the two candidates is about right, while 29% do feel the contest has been too narrow.
Do Labour members want a new leadership election?
But while the deputy leadership election has been quietly getting underway, it is the question of the party’s leadership itself that has been grabbing headlines, with Andy Burnham last week claiming that Labour MPs want him to oust the prime minister.
Were this to happen, Burnham would be the top choice of the membership by a substantial margin, with 54% of Labour members saying he’s the Labour figure they’d most like to see replace Starmer if he stood down. This is ahead of Angela Rayner on 10%, Wes Streeting on 7%, Ed Miliband and Yvette Cooper on 6% each, while 2% would opt for Shabana Mahmood and 4% would favour someone else.
Supporters of Bridget Phillipson are much less likely to back Burnham than supporters of Lucy Powell (38% vs 65%), though not to the advantage of any one alternative candidate in particular.
The scale of Burnham’s margin of victory here is not a consequence of a split opposition. When faced with a head-to-head choice between any of these six Labour politicians, party members opt for Burnham in landslide proportions each time they have the chance.
The mayor of Greater Manchester is preferred over Angela Rayner by 67% to 24%, over Yvette Cooper by 72% to 20%, over Wes Streeting by 74% to 19%, over Ed Miliband by 77% to 13%, and over Shabana Mahmood by 80% to 12%.
In head-to-heads that don’t include Burnham, Rayner is the candidate members would consistently back over the others.
The most evenly split head-to-head of those polled is Streeting versus Miliband (47% vs 44%), while Streeting vs Mahmood (45% vs 24%), who are both seen as being on the right of the party, is the pairing with the highest proportion of members saying they don’t know who they prefer or would abstain in such a contest (31%).
A preference for Burnham as leader isn’t just limited to hypothetical leadership contenders, with members saying they would back the mayor over Starmer in a leadership contest by 62% to 29%.
Bridget Phillipson’s status as more of the ‘continuity candidate’ for the deputy leadership is apparent here, with her supporters backing Starmer by a margin of 53% to 38%, in contrast to Lucy Powell’s supporters more decisively favouring Burnham 77% to 19%.
Those who voted for Starmer in the 2020 Labour leadership contest would now back Burnham over the incumbent Labour leader by a clear margin of 56% to 33%.
Nonetheless, appetite for a leadership election is seemingly in the minority among Labour members right now, with 53% believing that Starmer should lead Labour into the next election. However, this is against 37% who think the prime minister should not seek re-election, a mere 15 months after winning a landslide majority.
Again, Phillipson supporters are more supportive of the existing leadership, believing Starmer should remain in place by 73% to 17%, in contrast to Powell’s backers being split 47% to 47% on the question.
What do Labour members make of key budget challenges?
The autumn Budget is one of the government’s next major challenges, with expectations that the government will have to raise taxes to stay within Rachel Reeves’ fiscal rules.
This is unlikely to face major opposition from the Labour membership, two thirds of whom (68%) believe the government should look to raise taxes in the near future, relative to 21% who believe they should keep taxes where they are and just 5% who believe they should lower taxes.
Perhaps surprisingly, this isn’t because two thirds of the membership back a major increase in government spending. While 41% of Labour members believe government spending is currently too low, 31% feel current levels are about right and 19% believe current spending levels are too high.
In fact, roughly half of the Labour membership (48%) believe that the government should be trying to reduce welfare spending, although they are almost equally matched by 46% feeling that the government should not be seeking welfare cuts.
Nonetheless, just 29% of Labour members believe it would be the right priority to cut welfare spending at the current time.
But there is a deputy leadership divide here, with Lucy Powell supporters being roughly twice as likely to say that government spending is too low than Bridget Phillipson supporters (51% vs 27%), while those who are currently yet to make up their minds are the most likely to say that the government should not try to reduce welfare spending.
Are you a Labour member? What do you think about the direction of the party, and everything else? Have your say, join the YouGov panel, and get paid to share your thoughts. Sign up here.
Photo: Getty
