43% of Britons expect the party will still be here in a decade, though 36% believe they’ll fade from politics
It’s no secrethttps://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Internal_MainParties_250507.pdf that the British party system is undergoing something of a change at the moment. While the Conservatives and Labour have dominated British politics for decade, no YouGov voting intention poll since last year’s general election has had them as the two largest parties, and the BBC projected that they only won 35% of the vote between them in the local elections two weeks ago.
Central to this shift away from the traditional ‘big parties’ has been Reform UK, who have gained in polls since the election, with YouGov’s most recent voting intention showing them on 28% of the vote, and who won the most votes and seats in the recent local elections (the first time for a party other the Conservatives or Labour in over a century). But it can’t be ignored that the Lib Dems and Greens have also made gains.
For some, this heralds the end of the two-party system. Others, though, are keen to point out that we have been here before and, come the next general election, the Conservatives and Labour still take first and second. So do Britons feel time’s up on the traditional duopoly, or will the challengers simply fade away?
Britons are most confident in the ability of the Conservatives and Labour to stick around, with around two-thirds of the public (65-68%) believing they’ll still be an important part of British politics for at least the next 10 years, compared to just 15-16% who think either will eventually fade from politics.
Just 22% of Britons believe the Lib Dems will fade from politics within the next decade, compared to half (51%) believing they are here to stay, while the public also tend to feel the Greens have staying power by a margin of 44% to 26%.
Indeed, Britons are most sceptical of Reform UK’s ability to remain an important part of UK politics, with 36% believing they’ll have faded from relevance in the next 10 years, though this is outnumbered by the 43% who believe they’re here to stay.
There is a clear partisan component to these predictions. With Reform UK, for instance, just 6% of their voters believe they are a ‘mayfly party’ who’ll be gone in a decade, relative to 30% of Conservatives and roughly half of Lib Dem (49%) and Labour voters (53%) who say the same of Farage’s party.
However, more widely, Reform UK voters are the most likely to predict the demise of other parties, particularly the traditional big two. A third of Reform UK voters (35%) believe the Conservatives will have faded from politics in ten years, compared to 7-18% of voters for other major parties, while 42% of Reform UK voters think Labour will probably not be a force in a decade, compared to no more than 19% of other voters.
Who are the main parties today?
Regardless of where the public see the parties in a decade, there is a growing acceptance among Britons that – right now – Reform UK count as a ‘main party’. The public are now split 44% to 46% on whether or not they sit in the top category, a significant increase on the 29% who said Reform UK were a main party in January and the 19% who said so last July.
Acceptance of this status has grown among all voters, most notably with a majority of Conservatives (52%) now saying Reform UK are a ‘main party’, up from 36% in January. A third of Labour voters (33%) now give Farage’s party this classification, up from 17% at the start of the year, while the rise among Reform UK voters themselves has been from 78% to 87%.
Figures for the other five largest parties in Britain have remained much steadier over that period.
Will the two-party system still exist in a decade?
But while two-thirds of Britons believe that each of the Conservatives and Labour are likely to remain an important part of British politics for the next 10 years, just 37% of the public believe they’ll both still be the largest two parties in a decade’s time.
Just over one in five Britons (22%) believe that at least one of them will have been replaced as one of the two largest parties in the House of Commons by 2035, while one in six (17%) expect that neither the Conservatives nor Labour will retain their current status.
Reform UK voters are most likely to anticipate the demise of the traditional duopoly, with just 11% expecting the Tories and Labour to still be the ‘big two’ in 10 years’ time, while 44% believe they’ll both have been replaced. A fifth of Conservatives (21%) and one in eight (12%) Labour voters anticipate their party not being one of the largest two in 2035.
Will Britons be right about the future of the parties?
Ultimately, these are predictions, and they come with the caveat that the British public don’t have a perfect track record in predicting the future of the party system.
In Autumn 2014, with UKIP having recently won the 2014 European elections and the Lib Dems on course for a near-wipeout, we asked the same question. Britons expected the Lib Dems to fade from politics within 10 years by a margin of 48% to 25%, while tending to believe UKIP were here to stay by 48% to 36%. Last year’s general election, ten years on, saw the Lib Dems win the most seats for their party and its predecessors in a century, while UKIP won close to 0% of the vote.
However, by the next set of challenges to the two main parties in 2019, Britons were better soothsayers. Most of the public (56%) correctly predicted that Change UK would fade from politics, with six in ten (61%) anticipating the same of UKIP.
Britons were also sceptical of The Brexit Party’s staying power, with 63% believing it would no longer be a force in 10 years’ time, compared to just 13% believing it was here to stay. How accurate that prediction will turn out partly depends on whether you see the party’s name change to Reform UK as creating a new party.
See the full results hereand here
Which political parties do you think will be here in 10 years’ time? What do you think about Britain’s parties in general, and everything else? Have your say, join the YouGov panel, and get paid to share your thoughts. Sign up here.
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