Plaid Cymru lead in race for next year’s Senedd election, with Labour on just 18%
The first YouGov/ITV Wales Welsh voting intention poll since the 2024 general election to use our new MRP methodology shows a dramatic collapse in support for Labour for both devolved and Westminster elections.
In the race for the next Senedd election, currently scheduled for May 2026, Plaid Cymru lead on 30% of the vote, with Reform UK in second on 25%. Labour, who have won every previous devolved election, are now in a distant third place on just 18% of the vote, half the 36% of the regional vote they won in 2021.
The Conservatives are further back on 13%, also roughly half their performance in the 2021 Senedd election. The Liberal Democrats and Greens take 7% and 5% respectively.
Just 40% of Welsh people who voted for Labour at the 2024 general election say they will back the party in their campaign for a seventh term in Cardiff Bay, with 24% now supporting Plaid Cymru’s bid to lead the Welsh government instead. A further 8% have switched to the Lib Dems, with 5% moving to Reform UK and 4% to the Greens. One in eight (12%) say they don’t know who they’d vote for at a future Senedd election.
The Conservatives have also lost a significant number of voters, with just 56% of those who voted for the party in last year’s Westminster election currently supporting the party for next year’s Senedd election. A quarter (24%) of 2024 Welsh Conservatives now intend to vote for Reform UK.
Age has been one of the key dividing lines in voting behaviour at recent British elections, and the next Senedd election is set to be no exception. But while it has traditionally been the case that younger voters lean Labour and older voters favour the Conservatives, neither party leads among any group in our Senedd voting intention poll.
Plaid Cymru are the most popular party among younger Welsh people, holding the support of 46% of 16-24 year old voters, far ahead of the Greens on 21% and Labour on 16%. They also hold a clear lead among 25-49 year olds, with their 36% of the vote outpolling Labour on 22% and Reform UK at 18%.
Older generations tend to favour Reform UK, with them leading Plaid Cymru by 34% to 26% among 50-64 year old voters and by 30% to 23% among those aged 65 and over. It is amongst this oldest age group that the Tories do best, backed by 22% of Welsh over 65 voters.
Westminster voting intention
Grim reading for Labour can also be found in our Welsh Westminster voting intention poll, the first since their landslide win in last July’s general election, which included gains in Wales.
Labour now sit at 20% of the vote, down 17 points from the 37% they won last year. This places them behind both Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, who are tied for first place on 24% of the Welsh vote, up nine and seven points respectively.
As with our Britain-wide Westminster polling, the Conservatives have continued to decline since their historic defeat last year, now taking just 13% of the vote in Wales, down from 18%.
The Liberal Democrats and Greens are now polling at 9% and 7% of the vote in Wales.
See the full results here (Senedd) and here (Westminster)
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Photo: Getty
