Christian Democrats on course to be largest party, with The Left and far-right AfD also expected to make gains
YouGov’s final MRP of the 2025 German federal election projects a clear first place for the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU), with our model’s central estimate showing them winning 220 of the Bundestag’s 630 seats and 30% of the vote, up from the 24% they won at the last election.
The largest gains of the election, though, are likely to be for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), who are expected to finish second with 145 seats on 20% of the vote, roughly double the 10% they won at the last election and the best performance by a party to the right of the CDU/CSU in post-war Germany.
By contrast, the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) of current chancellor Olaf Scholz should be braced for severe losses, with our final MRP projecting that they will win 115 seats on 16% of the vote, down from the 26% they won in 2021 and the party’s worst result in the post-war period.
Their current coalition partners, the Greens, are expected to fall back from their record 15% of the vote in 2021, with the model’s central estimates giving them 13% of the vote and 94 seats in parliament.
But despite the government suffering losses, the SPD could remain in power as part of a ‘grand coalition’ between them and the CDU/CSU. This is the only two-party coalition with a majority according to these estimates, except for a coalition between the CDU/CSU and AfD, which the former have ruled out.
A coalition between the CDU/CSU and the Greens is also a plausible scenario when taking into account our model’s lower and higher estimates. Our central estimate, however, puts a so-called ‘black-green coalition’ on 314 seats, two seats short of a majority.
It is The Left who have been responsible for the biggest turnaround over the course of the election campaign. Our first MRP had the socialist party on just 3% of the vote and with no seats. Now, though, they are expected to clear the 5% threshold needed to guarantee seats in parliament, with our model’s central estimate suggesting they will win 55 seats on 7% of the vote.
The central estimates of our final MRP put both the new left-wing but socially conservative Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) a fraction below 5% of the vote, winning them no seats in parliament. But our higher estimates suggest that it is not possible to rule out either party returning in the next Bundestag.
Germany’s East-West divide
YouGov’s final model of the election again underlines the strong regional dimension in the results, with the AfD projected to lead in all but five of the constituencies located in the former East Germany, but none in the former West Germany.
The AfD are projected to perform strongest in the eastern states of Saxony (37% of the vote) and Thuringia (36%), which would better their seismic results in regional elections in those states last September.
The Left and BSW are also both expected to perform better in the former East Germany.
See the full results here (in German)
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