48% of Conservative voters say Badenoch does not look like a prime minister waiting
While few would have expected taking the reins of the Conservative party after its worst ever election result would have been easy job, it has still been a rough first 100 days for Kemi Badenoch. The Conservatives have finished in third place in every YouGov voting intention poll so far this year and there are already calls for her to go from members of her own party.
After three months in office, only a quarter of Britons (25%) consider Badenoch to be doing a good job as leader of the Conservatives, though this against just a third (33%) who think she has done a bad job so far. Indeed, Britons tend to still be unsure how to evaluate her leadership, with 42% saying they don’t know how well she has done.
For a relatively new leader, there are two ways of looking at this. On the one hand, Badenoch has a considerable portion of the public who could be convinced and won over; on the other, she has not managed to make a clear impression with many Britons in over three months.
Conservative voters themselves are more favourable, with 56% believing Badenoch has done a good job so far, though one in six (17%) disagree.
Key to being a successful opposition leader is being able to look like a prime minister in waiting. But just one in seven Britons (14%) believe that description fits Badenoch at the moment, against a majority of the public (55%) who feel she does not.
Even among Conservative voters, the number who do not see her as a prime minister in waiting (48%) is nearly double the proportion who do (26%). Among the Reform UK, Labour and Lib Dem voters that Badenoch needs to win over, around two-thirds (65-68%) do not yet see Badenoch as prime ministerial material.
Part of this is likely down to Britons feeling unsure that Badenoch has the qualities that are often desired in a prime minister. The public are divided 28% to 24% on whether Badenoch is decisive or indecisive, split 26% to 30% on whether she is strong or weak, and diverge 26% to 32% on whether she is competent or incompetent. In all cases, though, Britons are again more likely to say they ‘don’t know’ (43-48%).
Where Britons do have a clearer opinion on Badenoch is on her trustworthiness, with twice as many branding her untrustworthy (39%) as trustworthy (19%). The public are also significantly more likely to see the Tory leader as being dislikeable (39%) rather than likeable (24%). Again, however, around four in ten Britons (37-42%) have no view either way, reemphasising that Badenoch remains an unknown quantity for many.
Conservative voters are more positive about Badenoch’s attributes, with around half (49-52%) saying she is trustworthy, likeable, strong and decisive, and nearly six in ten (58%) describing her as competent. But, once again, ‘don’t know’ is a common response, with between 30-38% of Conservatives unsure how to describe Badenoch.
Central to Badenoch’s pitch has been winning back Conservative losses to Reform UK. There is undoubtedly some warmth towards her among Reform UK voters, with 41% describing her as likeable, and they are also more likely than the public as a whole to describe her as competent (35%) or trustworthy (26%).
Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage tie when asked would make the best prime minister
But while Reform UK voters may look at Badenoch positively, they emphatically do not prefer her to Reform UK leader Nigel Farage. When asked who would make a better prime minister, 73% of Reform UK voters said Farage, compared to just 6% who favour Badenoch.
Indeed, only a third of Conservative voters (35%) would choose Badenoch over Farage when it comes to who would make the better prime minister, with a quarter (26%) opting for Farage outright and another third (32%) unable to choose between the two.
Among all Britons, Badenoch and Farage are tied on 22% each, though this is her relative best ‘head-to-head’ performance against other major party leaders.
When paired off against Keir Starmer, three in ten Britons (31%) think the Labour leader makes the better prime minister of the two, compared to 20% who say so of Badenoch. Even on this match-up, just 53% of Conservative voters think Badenoch would do better than the current prime minister. The British public also feel that Lib Dem leader Ed Davey would be the better prime minister of the two, by a margin of 26% to 17%.
Could the Conservatives be doing better under another leader?
One of the key questions around criticisms of Badenoch’s leadership is whether anybody could be doing better given the current state of the Conservative party. Three quarters of Britons (73%) currently see the party as being in a ‘weak’ state, including a third who see them as in a ‘very weak’ state. This compares to only 10% of the public describing the Tories as being in a strong state.
While Conservative voters are a little more optimistic about the state of the party, only 22% see it as being in a strong state, against 67% who feel it is currently in a weak state.
Among those who describe the party as being in a weak state, two-thirds (66%) believe the Conservatives would be in this state no matter who the leader was. Nonetheless, 15% believe the party are in a worse state than they would be under another leader, outnumbering the 8% who believe Badenoch has put the Tories in a better state than an alternative could have.
Notably, Conservative voters who describe the party as being in a weak state are more likely still (24%) to believe the party is currently in a worse state than it would be under another leader.
See the full results here and here
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Photo: Getty
