Over a decade, little has changed, with 56% opposed to independence and 44% in favour
A decade ago, Scotland voted ‘No’ to independence by 55% to 45%, remaining in the United Kingdom by a margin that was clear enough to answer the question, but not wide enough to settle the debate forever.
In hindsight, most Scots (52%) are glad that the referendum was held, with only one in three (33%) feeling it was a bad idea to let the vote happen, but how do Scots feel about the issue ten years on?
How has support for Scottish independence shifted?
A decade after the vote, support is effectively where it was in September 2014 – of those who know how they would vote in a future referendum, 56% say they would vote ‘No’ to independence, against 44% saying ‘Yes’ to Scotland leaving the United Kingdom.
While support for independence has ebbed and flowed over the last ten years, the unionist side have generally held on to the lead they secured in 2014, with YouGov tracker data showing the ‘Yes’ side only taking the lead briefly on a couple of occasions.
Support for ‘Yes’ has peaked at 53% twice, first in August 2020 and again in December 2022, with lows of 43% recorded three times between March 2017 and January 2018.
Nonetheless, 8% of Scots say they ‘don’t know’ how they would vote in a future referendum and there is still wriggle-room for both sides. One in five Scots (21%) say their opinion on whether Scotland should be an independent country is ‘not very strong’ or ‘not strong at all’, with only half (48%) saying they hold their view on the question ‘very strongly’.
Notably, one in five hypothetical ‘No’ voters (21%) say their view on independence is not strong, compared to only 8% of hypothetical ‘Yes’ voters. Whether the pro-independence side can win over these currently disproportionately softer ‘No’ voters, as well as those who currently ‘don’t know’, could be key in deciding any future referendum.
Who supports Scottish independence today?
Only seven in ten of those who voted for independence in 2014 (70%) say they would stick with their choice in a future referendum, while one in six (18%) have changed their minds and now wish for Scotland to stay part of the Union. ‘No’ voters have been less fluid, with eight in ten (79%) saying they would still back the status quo, but one in nine (11%) have been won over by the idea of an independent Scotland over the last decade.
But while ‘No’ might have been more successful at converting those who voted in 2014, younger voters who have entered the electorate in the last decade lean towards independence. Four in ten 16-24 year olds (39%) say they would vote ‘Yes’ in a future referendum, against three in ten (31%) saying they would vote ‘No’. Also leaning towards independence are 25-49 year olds, with 42% saying they support it, compared to 37% who are opposed.
Older generations remain more decisively against a change to Scotland’s national set-up, with only 36% of 50-64 year olds and 27% of over 65s backing separatism, relative to 54% and 66% respectively intending to vote ‘No’ if given the chance.
Support for, or opposition to, independence also continues to have a significant relationship with the Scottish party system. Those who voted Conservative in this year’s general election overwhelmingly say they would vote ‘No’ in a future referendum (97%), while SNP voters decisively split the other way, with eight in ten (82%) saying they would vote ‘Yes’, against one in ten (10%) who support the party in spite of their constitutional stance.
Seven in ten Labour voters (69%) fall on the side of ‘No’, with only one in five (20%) saying they would vote ‘Yes’ if they were given the option. Labour voters are, however, less likely to say their views on the question are strongly held (74%), compared to 86-87% of Conservative and SNP voters.
Should there be another Scottish independence referendum?
Regardless of how Scots say they would vote in a future referendum, there is of course the question of whether a future referendum should even take place.
The Scottish public already tend to think that the issue has been too dominant over the last decade of Scottish politics, with 51% saying the question of independence has received too much discussion in the last ten years and just one in six (18%) feeling it should have been given more attention, including only three in ten of those who voted for independence in 2014 (31%).
Perhaps because of this feeling, only one in six Scots (18%) would like another referendum immediately within the next year, while seven in ten (70%) are opposed to such a vote. However, for many, it’s not necessarily a long-term project, with 37% favouring a rerun in the next five years and 43% supporting one in the next decade.
Naturally there is a clear divide in enthusiasm for a second referendum – nearly nine in ten of those who say they would vote for independence (86%) want a vote in the next ten years, something true of only one in eleven of those who wish to stay in the United Kingdom (9%).
But while there is a degree of support for another referendum sooner rather than later, Scots still tend to see their country becoming independent as something only really likely in the longer term, if that.
Just one in ten Scots (10%) believe it is likely that Scotland will be independent within the next five years, including less than a quarter of those who support independence (23%). Even within the next twenty years, just a third of the Scottish public (34%) believe it’s a likely possibility.
However, when thinking about things in terms of the next fifty years, independence is seen as more plausible, with nearly half of Scots (45%) thinking it’s likely that Scotland will no longer be a part of the United Kingdom by 2074, including 72% of independence supporters believing their dream will be achieved in the next half-century.
Three in ten Scots (31%) still feel it is unlikely that the Union will be dissolved by then, though this includes only half of those opposed to independence (49%), with nearly a quarter (23%) of unionists pessimistic about the long-term viability of the UK.
What could increase and decrease support for independence?
But there is a distinction to be made between support for independence in the abstract and support for independence based on particular circumstances, with those on either side of the debate keen to talk up the likelihood of various independence consequences in the hope that this can swing minds.
Significantly increasing support for independence would be a guarantee that an independent Scotland would rejoin the EU. A clear majority of Scots (56%) say they would support independence in this situation, including more than a quarter (27%) of those who currently say they would vote ‘No’ in a future referendum.
The potential cost of living is also an important factor in people’s thinking. If the cost of living was to decline in an independent Scotland, half of Scots (50%) would support independence, against four in ten (40%) being opposed. However, if it was clear that the cost of living would rise as a result of leaving the UK, only a quarter of the Scottish public (26%) would support independence, with two-thirds (65%) opposed and a third of current independence supporters (35%) abandoning the idea.
Similarly denting support for independence would be if Scotland was unable to continue using the pound or if border checks were imposed between England and Scotland, in which cases only around one in three Scots (29-33%) would back independence.
The threat of job losses caused by large businesses moving their operations out of Scotland would also harm the cause, with only a quarter of the Scottish public (25%), and 56% of current independence supporters, saying they would continue to support independence if this occurred.
This article was updated on 18 September 2024 to include additional waves that had been missing from our first tracker chart.
What do you think about Scottish independence? Have your say, join the YouGov panel, and get paid to share your thoughts. Sign up here.
Photo: Getty
