Voting Intention (Wales): Labour 45%, Conservatives 18% (30 May – 3 Jun 2024)

Mark CunninghamContent Editor
Matthew SmithHead of Data Journalism
June 13, 2024, 9:53 AM GMT+0

With less than four weeks until the country marks their choice on the ballot paper, the latest YouGov/ITV Wales voting poll shows that almost half (45%) of Welsh voters say they are going to vote for Labour (+3 points since our last poll in December).

The Conservatives are significantly behind in second place on 18% (-2), with Reform UK third on 13% (+1) and Plaid Cymru close behind on 12% (-3).

The Liberal Democrats trail on 5% (-2) and the Greens take just 4% (+1).

The poll was conducted on 30 May to 3 June, prior to our shift in methodology for voting intention polling to align with that used by our MRP model.

Both Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer are unpopular in Wales, but Starmer less so

With Rishi Sunak asking the nation to let him stay on in his job, fully seven in ten Welsh adults (71%) say he has been doing badly as prime minister. Only a fifth (21%) say he is doing well.

Keir Starmer is performing better in Wales but is still unpopular overall. Half (49%) of Welsh adults say Starmer is doing a bad job as Labour leader, while 35% think he is doing a good job overall.

Most Welsh adults think Vaughan Gething is doing a bad job

The First Minister of Wales, Labour’s Vaughan Gething, remains in office despite losing a vote of no confidence in the Senedd last week. The Senedd members aren’t the only people to express their dissatisfaction with the new Welsh leader – a majority of the Welsh public (57%) believe Gething is doing a bad job, compared to just 15% who say he is doing well (the remaining 28% are unsure).

The Senedd opposition leader, the Conservatives’ Andrew RT Davies, does not fare that much better. Although fewer people (40%) believe he is doing a poor job, just 20% think he is performing well. Opinions on the Plaid Cymru leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, are divided; 26% say he is doing well, while 23% believe he is doing poorly. Notably, a significant portion of Welsh adults are unsure about both Davies (40%) and ap Iorwerth (51%).

Do Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer care about Wales?

Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer are asking Welsh voters to make them prime minister, but with both candidates being English and expecting to do their job from London, how many Welsh people think either care about Wales?

Very few, is the answer. A mere one in eleven Welsh adults (9%) say they think that Rishi Sunak cares about Wales, compared to 82% who think he does not. Even those Welsh voters who currently intend to back the Conservatives are divided – 46% think he does care about Wales, but 48% think he does not. Among those who voted for the party at the last election in 2019, 70% think their current leader does not care about Wales.

Keir Starmer performs not much better – only one in five Welsh adults (19%) think he cares much about Wales. Seven in ten (69%) say he doesn’t care much or at all about Wales, a figure which includes 54% of those who intend to vote Labour on 4 July.

These figures are in marked contrast to Labour’s former and current first ministers. A majority believe that Mark Drakeford (57%) and Vaughan Gething (53%) care about Wales, with a further 53% saying the same of Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth. Welsh Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies divides opinion – 37% think he cares about Wales, while 36% say he doesn’t (although current Tory voters overwhelmingly think he does, at 72%).

While Welsh adults may think Starmer and Sunak don’t care about Wales, they sure do think they care about England – 68% and 63% respectively think the pair care about Wales’ eastern neighbour.

See the full results here

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Photo: Getty