General election 2024: how have our methodology changes affected voting intention?

June 05, 2024, 7:47 AM GMT+0

Today’s YouGov voting intention poll for Sky News - conducted on 3-4 June - is the first we are publishing under our new methodology. Our full explanation of the change can be found here, but in short we are switching to the methodology used by our MRP.

This latest poll shows Labour on 40% to the Conservatives’ 19% - a lead of 21 points. We also have Reform UK on 17%, the Liberal Democrats on 10% and Greens on 7%. The fieldwork from the survey began after Nigel Farage had announced that we was standing as a candidate and taking over the reins of Reform UK.

The Labour lead under the old method would have been 27 points, but this was a larger contrast than most days. We have tested the new approach over a number of waves of data, and on average it makes about three points difference to the lead (mostly at the expense of Labour, rather than aiding the Tories), and also increases the Liberal Democrats by about two points.

Based on comparisons with the previous poll, the increase in support for Reform and the decrease for the Conservatives are not connected to the method change. The Labour drop is partly down to the method change, but they would still have been down without it. The Liberal Democrat increase is purely a result of the change in method and does not represent any real change.

However, the changes observed are relatively small once accounting for the method change, and the difference could represent normal variation. Our future polls will indicate whether or not the figures revert to previous levels we would have been seeing under the new methodology.

See the full results here