New polling from YouGov France gives incumbent French president Emmanuel Macron a slender advantage in both rounds of the 2022 election
This month, French voters will head to the polls to choose their next president. Voters participate in two contests: an initial ‘first round’ which whittles down the full field of contenders (no fewer than 12 this time) to just two1, who then go on to participate in the ‘run off’ second round.
This latest YouGov/DataPraxis polling suggests that centrist Macron will safely move into the second round along with Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right 'Rassemblement National', but faces a tight battle to secure France’s highest office in the run off.
According to a poll on 28-31 March, Macron leads round 1 voting intention with 27% to Le Pen's 25%.
Coming in a distant third is leader of the left-wing ‘France Insoumise’ movement, Jean-Luc Mélenchon (15%).
No other candidate has more than 10% of current round 1 vote intention.
Looking ahead to round 2, our figures suggest that Macron will once again win the French presidency, but in another very tight race.
Of those who gave us a vote intention, 54% said they would back Macron in a potential run off against Marine Le Pen, versus 46% who reported that they would support the Rassemblement National leader. In the 2017 contest, Macron triumphed over Le Pen by a much larger 66% to 34% margin.
1 If a candidate wins more than 50% of the votes in the first round, they are declared the winner of the election without the need for a second round run off.