Negative momentum prevails as consumers continue to feel disheartened about the UK economy
- YouGov’s mid-month Household Economic Activity Tracker (HEAT) index for June continues to fall, down from 95 to 93
- Employed Britons lack confidence in business activity levels
- A very different picture for those earning 50k and over: index continues to improve, with an increase of four points in June as well as a spike in business activity levels
YouGov’s latest interim Household Economic Activity Tracker (HEAT) findings for June reveal that consumer confidence continues to fall as June’s interim index score reported a two point drop, down to 93 (see figure 1). Consumer sentiment remains on a negative trend since April, which reported the first downturn in the index since December 2011.
Figure 1: UK HEAT Index
Source: YouGov Household Economic Activity Tracker, June 2012
Note: Based on interviews of 3,291 UK residents conducted from 1st – 14th June 2012.
Index score is derived from consumer sentiment on 4 metrics (home prices, job security, family financial situation, and business activity) measured retrospectively and prospectively.
The drop in index can be mainly attributed to a sharp decrease in business activity levels – both retrospective and prospective. Retrospective scores (change over the past month) amongst employed Britons reported a six point drop – down from 110 in May, to 104 in June. Prospective scores (expected change over the forthcoming 12 months) also saw a sharp decline – falling from 119 in May, to 116 in June. This is in stark contrast to scores recorded in March 2012, when retrospective business activity levels were at a 12-month high of 111, and prospective levels were at an all-time high of 123.
Figure 2: Retrospective and Prospective Business Activity Levels
Source: YouGov Household Economic Activity Tracker, June 2012
Note: Based on interviews of 2,073 UK residents conducted from 1st – 14th June 2012.
Respondents were asked whether they expect business activity at their place of work 12 months from now to be “Lower”, “Higher” or unchanged.
June’s findings paint a different picture for those households earning 50k and over: index rose by four points - from 102 in May, to 106 in June. Confidence in business activity levels, in particular, saw a marked increase - influencing the index score amongst this demographic. Retrospective business activity levels rose six points from May, up to 122, and prospective levels saw a massive spike - up 23 points, from 121 in May to 144 in June.
Figure 3: Retrospective and Prospective Business Activity Levels (among those earning 50k and over)
Source: YouGov Household Economic Activity Tracker, June 2011
Note: Based on interviews of 612 UK residents conducted from 1st – 14th June 2012.
Respondents were asked whether they expect business activity at their place of work 12 months from now to be “Lower”, “Higher” or unchanged.
YouGov CEO Stephan Shakespeare commented on the findings, saying that "The feel-good factor inspired by 2011's Royal Wedding caused a bump in consumer confidence last year but the Jubilee does not seem to have had a similar impact this time around, with confidence slightly down in June.
The positive news in this data is that confidence remains higher than it was for most of 2011 but it is disappointing that the forward momentum of the first quarter has reversed, and concerning that the trend is now negative.”
See more details and the full HEAT PR June Release here
See more information on the YouGov Household Economic Activity here or contact YouGov's press office on press@yougov.com
