YouGov surveyed 218 electors in the by-election constituency of Rochester & Strood
The number is not large enough to make a prediction, of course, but I wanted to hear the voters' voice. We know how our panellists voted in 2010, so for today let's just take former Conservatives who have switched to Ukip for this week's vote:
- "Conservatives here have shown themselves to be spiteful and vindictive and should concentrate on their own issues, rather than rubbishing a perfectly decent guy in Mark Reckless. They have scored a spectacular own goal with their attitude."
- "I am really fed up that both Labour and the Cons are running scared and have flooded the area. If this was a normal by-election neither would have bothered."
- "I think all political parties need a kick up the backside, a Ukip win will provide this."
- "I think Mark Reckless is a self-serving idiot but am voting for his party rather than for him personally."
- "It will test the majority protest over immigration and disgust with the established political class."
Asked to choose their main reason for voting Ukip from five options, they split as follows: about a third chose "I think the candidate's party best represents my beliefs and values". Another third preferred "I support their position on a particular issue of importance to me". A quarter said "I want to make a protest or send a message about the current state of politics".
The others split between "I think the candidate's party has the best specific policies for the country" and "I think the candidate has the personal qualities to make the best politician."
For more responses visit the Red Box website.