With 12 days to go until the Scottish independence referendum, the ‘Yes’ campaign has taken a 2 point lead - which means a statistical dead heat at this late stage
The latest survey, conducted for The Sunday Times with less than two weeks to go until voting day, has YES at 51% and NO at 49% – the first lead for the independence camp registered by YouGov, or any polling company, since regular polling on September 18th’s referendum began.
The numbers represent a four-point increase for YES support since YouGov’s last Scottish independence poll conducted a week ago (August 28-September 1). Opposition to independence has fallen from 53% to 49%.
The last poll, fielded after the second televised independence debate (which Alex Salmond was widely regarded as having won), was the first to represent a real possibility for a ‘Yes’ win, with only a six point gap between the sides.
The percentages reported exclude those who wouldn’t vote and don’t know. With those groups included ‘Yes’ are on 47% and ‘No’ are on 45%.
Full tables will be released shortly, with a commentary by YouGov’s Peter Kellner.