But not on the terms that we had before we left
While the British public has long since turned against Brexit, with recent YouGov research showing that most Britons have been saying it was wrong to leave since 2022, the reality is that a return to the EU probably won’t happen any time soon. Prior to becoming prime minister, Keir Starmer said that there is no case for rejoining the body, and that a ‘Breturn’ would not take place in his lifetime.
If the UK did seek to return, however, they would be welcomed with open arms by Western Europeans. The results of a new YouGov EuroTrack survey shows that at least half of the publics across the largest EU nations – France, Germany, Italy and Spain – all support allowing the UK back in (51-63%).
However, a key question on the UK’s return is whether or not we would be allowed to rejoin under the same terms we held when we left, which included not having to be in the Euro or the Schengen passport-free travel zone.
Our largest neighbours say that, if we want to rejoin the fold, the UK should have to participate in all major EU policy areas (58-62%). Only around one in five (19-22%) say the UK should be allowed to come back as if it had never left.
By contrast, Denmark – also included in the survey – proves to be an exception. By 43% to 36%, Danes say that the UK should be allowed to return to the EU while holding on to all its previous opt-outs. This may not be as altruistic as it seems: Denmark is one of only three current EU nations to hold any opt-outs for major EU policy areas, and so it could be to Denmark’s benefit to reintegrate another nation in possession of opt-outs.
To stress-test European attitudes on UK opt-outs, we subsequently asked Europeans, if Britain was only willing to rejoin the EU if they could keep their previous opt-outs they, should be allowed to rejoin?
While some Europeans concede in this circumstance – overall 33-36% would allow it – they remain outnumbered by those opposed (41-52%).
We therefore meet a public opinion impasse. For while 54% of Britons support rejoining the EU when asked in isolation, this figure falls to just 36% in the event that rejoining would require the UK to forego its previous opt-outs. Under these terms, 45% of Britons would be opposed to re-entering the EU.
Remain voters and those that back more pro-EU parties would still back rejoining the EU even if this meant joining the Euro and Schengen area, albeit at much lower rates than in our vanilla question. For instance, 59% of Remain voters would support rejoining the EU without our previous opt-outs (down 25pts from the non-specific question), as are 58% of Labour voters (down 23pts) and 49% of Lib Dems (down 31pts).
The absence of the UK’s previous bonuses approximately halves the number of Leave voters and those that back Eurosceptic parties willing to rejoin the body: among Leave voters it falls from 21% to 10%; among Tories from 25% to 12%; and among Reform UK voters from 15% to 9%.
See the full results here
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