Far-right party projected to win 20% of the vote, but Germans are divided on whether other parties should cooperate with the AfD
Germany’s parliamentary election is now just two-and-a-half weeks away, and YouGov’s second MRP of the campaign shows the Alternative for Germany (AfD) remain on course for the best result in post-war Germany for a party to the right of the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU).
Our model’s central estimate projects the AfD will finish in second place, with 142 of the 630 seats in the Bundestag, as well as winning 20% of the vote. This would be roughly double the 10% they won in 2021 and matches the 20% estimated by our first MRP three weeks ago.
Nonetheless, the conservative CDU/CSU retain a clear lead on 29% of the vote (-1 compared to the first MRP) and are projected to win 207 seats.
There’s been no improvement from our first projection for the two centre-left governing parties, the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens, with YouGov’s second MRP model placing them on 15% and 13% of the vote respectively.
But there has been a substantive shift when it comes to parliamentary majorities. According to the model’s central estimate, a so-called grand coalition of the CDU/CSU and SPD would now have a wafer-thin majority in the Bundestag of just two, down from 44 in the first model. This suggests that a three-party coalition will be needed for the next government to be confident in securing parliamentary business.
By contrast, the second YouGov model shows a small but important improvement in the vote share for The Left party, with our median projection putting them just over the 5% threshold that guarantees parties representation in the Bundestag. This is an improvement on the 3% estimated for the party by the first model of the campaign.
But it remains a knife-edge contest for The Left, as well as the new left-wing but socially conservative Sahra Wagenkneckt Alliance (BSW) and the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP). According to the lower and higher estimates of our model, all are capable of falling below and above the 5% threshold, typically the difference between winning seats and being wiped out.
Also remaining clear from our first projection is the deep regional divide apparent in German politics today. Although not quite as unanimous as on YouGov’s initial MRP of the campaign, the AfD are still leading in all but four constituencies located in the former East Germany, but none in the rest of the country.
Germans say that immigration is the most important issue facing the country
Regardless of where the other parties finish, it is likely that the substantial gains of the AfD, as projected by the YouGov MRP model, will be the headline of the election, even if all other parties have ruled out allowing them into government.
One of the main reasons fuelling the AfD’s rise in recent years has been discontent among many Germans over immigration. It is now seen as the biggest problem facing the country, with 56% saying it is one of three most important issues in Germany today and 35% saying it is the single most important issue that politicians should address.
By comparison, the economy, which is the second-most common response to both questions, is seen as a top three issue by just 35% of the German public, with only 16% viewing it as the most pressing issue for politicians to address.
Eight in ten of those intending to vote AfD (82%) say that immigration is one of the most important issues facing Germany, alongside 69% of CDU/CSU voters, 63% of BSW supporters and 54% of those currently leaning towards the FDP. Even among those voting for more liberal and left-wing parties, 39% of SPD voters, 29% of The Left voters and 25% of Greens say it is one of the key problems in Germany today.
Central to the discontent on the issue are the levels of immigration to Germany, which 80% of Germans say have been too high over the last decade, including a majority (54%) who say the levels have been ‘much too high’.
And for half of Germans (50%), it is not just a case of there being too much immigration, but that it has been actively bad for the country overall. This compares to a third (33%) saying that it has been neither good nor bad for Germany and just 13% who feel that immigration over the last decade has been generally good for the country.
With the AfD having put its opposition to immigration at the centre of its election platform, it is unsurprising that 85% of those intending to vote for them later this month see recent immigration as a bad thing for Germany. But they are not alone, with 61% of those planning to vote BSW and 55% of those intending to vote CDU/CSU also seeing immigration as more of a negative.
Those planning to vote for the SPD are more split, with 23% seeing immigration as an overall positive and 29% feeling it has been more of a negative for Germany. But even among Germans intending to vote Green, which has tended to be one of the more pro-immigrant parties, those believing that recent immigration has been a mix of good and bad for Germany (46%) outnumber the 37% who feel that it has been a positive.
How do Germans feel about other parties co-operating with the AfD?
But despite the AfD’s continued gains and the importance of immigration as an issue to many voters, Germans are divided on whether other parties should co-operate with them.
Nearly half of Germans (46%) believe that other parties should completely rule out cooperation with the AfD, though a similar number believe either that cooperation should be considered on a case-by-case basis (30%) or that other parties should actively seek cooperation with the AfD (18%).
This also exposes a divide among the supporters of the ‘mainstream’ parties. While 87% of Green supporters and 77% of those intending to vote SPD believe that there should be no cooperation whatsoever with the AfD, CDU/CSU voters are evenly divided between 44% who favour no cooperation and 44% who want it decided on a case-by-case basis. FDP voters have even less desire to maintain the so-called ‘firewall’, with just 26% believing other parties should completely rule out cooperation with the AfD.
One of the key moments of the campaign so far has been the fallout from the decision of the CDU/CSU to pursue a motion in parliament for tougher immigration rules with support from the AfD, something that sparked criticism from former CDU chancellor Angela Merkel.
Germans are split 45% to 45% on whether it was wrong for the CDU/CSU to accept a joint vote with the AfD. This includes 30% of those intending to vote CDU/CSU feeling it was wrong. More broadly, half of CDU/CSU voters (49%) say they see cooperation with the AfD as contradicting fundamental Christian democratic values.
Three-quarters of Germans (76%) feel that the events have pushed the ‘democratic parties’ further apart, while 57% believe Germany has moved further to the right. Eight in ten Germans (80%) also believe that it will now be more difficult for parties to form a coalition after the election.
See the full German MRP results here
See the full results here
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Photo: Getty
