Christian Democrats lead in the polls, with half of Germans sad, anxious or worried after far-right gains in state elections
Following the 2021 German federal election, the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), Green Party and liberal Free Democrats (FDP) formed a so-called ‘traffic-light’ coalition (after the red, yellow and green colours of the three parties) under chancellor Olaf Scholz, who had led the SPD to a surprise comeback during the election campaign.
But it has not been an easy ride for Scholz’s government since. Not only have they faced the same issues as many other western countries, including a higher cost of living and growing opposition to immigration, but the coalition has also been damaged by public splits between the parties over the response to the war in Ukraine and on issues like tax and spend.
In the last few weeks, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and new left-wing populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) have made major gains in three state elections in the former east Germany, with the traffic-light parties collectively losing ground in each, including the FDP recording their worst ever state election result twice in three weeks.
So, one year out from the expected date of Germany’s next federal election, what does the political situation in Germany look like?
Voting intention
Voting intention polls in Germany have shown three main stories since the last election in 2021. First is the recovery of the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU), who, having slipped to second place in the last elections, have led in YouGov’s monthly poll since January 2022 and are currently supported by 32% of German voters, up eight points from the 24% they won in 2021.
Against this is the collapse in support for the three coalition parties, who are now only collectively backed by 31% of voters, despite having won a majority (52%) of the vote between them at the last election. Most of this decline is off the back of the SPD, who have fallen from 26% of the vote to just 14% today, and the FDP, who are down seven points to 4%, which would fall below the 5% threshold usually needed to win seats under Germany’s voting system (there are exemptions in certain circumstances).
The Greens stand at 13%, down two points on their 2021 result, though the party’s leaders have resigned in response to poor state election results since this poll was taken.
The third key story is the growth in support for populist parties on the left and right. The far-right AfD saw their vote share rise between mid-2022 and January this year, at which point one in four German voters (24%) said they would support them at a future election. In recent months their support has fallen back a little, with the AfD now polling at 18%, though still up seven points on 2021.
On the other side of the spectrum, the new left-wing but socially conservative BSW, who officially launched in January, are now polling at 8%. This is double the support for Sahra Wagenknecht’s former party – ‘the Left’ – whose current 4% support would, like the FDP, potentially see them win no seats at a future election.
How does support for German parties vary among different groups?
The gains in recent state elections have highlighted the continued east/west divide in German politics. Within the former west Germany, the CDU/CSU enjoy an eighteen point lead over the AfD; in the former east Germany, the two parties are effectively tied, both supported by around a quarter of voters (25% for CDU, 26% for AfD).
The BSW are similarly more of an eastern party, with support of one in eight east German voters (13%), compared to only 7% of those in the west. This contrasts with the Greens, whose support is higher in the west (14%) than the east (8%), while the SPD are supported by 14% in both halves of the country.
In some respects, Germany’s wider social-political divides are not as severe as in the UK, with the CDU/CSU’s support reasonably consistent across age groups and by education. Nevertheless, splits do exist.
The AfD’s support, for instance, is noticeably higher among men (22%, vs 14% among women), with middle-aged and older voters (19-22% within over 40s age groups, compared to 13% with 18-29 year olds) and among those with a GCSE-level education (25%, vs 14% with those with the equivalents of A-Levels).
The Greens are the mirror image of this, performing best among younger voters (18-19% with under 40s) and with those who have a higher education (18%, vs 10% with a GCSE-level education).
In terms of how voters have moved over the last three years, the most significant shifts have been as a result of the disintegration of the SPD and FDP electoral coalitions. Fewer than half of those who voted SPD in 2021 and intend to vote again stick with their previous choice, with this figure just one in four (25%) among 2021 FDP voters. This contrasts with the CDU/CSU, who are holding on to 83% of their 2021 voters, and the AfD, whose retention rate stands at 89%.
The largest defection from the SPD is to the CDU/CSU, with 22% now exchanging social democracy for Christian democracy. One in ten (10%) have moved to the BSW, while 9% have switched to the Greens and 6% have crossed to the AfD, the same rate as among 2021 CDU/CSU voters.
Four in ten voting 2021 FDP voters (42%) now say they’ll vote for the CDU/CSU, while one in seven (15%) have moved to the AfD. The Greens have also suffered some losses, with 15% of voting 2021 Green voters now favouring the CDU/CSU and 8% switching to the SPD. Six in ten (61%), though, remain with the party.
What do Germans think of the government and leading politicians?
Just shy of a quarter of Germans (23%) are satisfied by the work of the traffic light coalition so far, while three-quarters (74%) say they are dissatisfied, including six in ten of those who voted for the SPD (61%) or Greens (59%) in 2021 and more than eight in ten of those who voted for the FDP (84%).
Similarly poorly received is Olaf Scholz, who only 22% of Germans think has done a good job as chancellor, against three-quarters (74%) who believe he has done a bad job, again including six in ten of those who voted SPD (58%).
Relatively better received among the cabinet is the foreign minister Annalena Baerbock of the Greens, who one in three Germans (32%) see as having done a good job, including three-quarters of 2021 Green voters (73%). Nonetheless, a majority of the German public (57%) see her as having done a poor job. Fellow senior Green minister, vice-chancellor and economy minister Robert Habeck, does not fare quite as well, only a quarter of Germans (25%) rating his performance in office as good, against six in ten (62%) feeling he has done a bad job.
Finance minister and FDP leader Christian Lindner receives a similar report from the German public, a quarter (24%) saying he has done a good job, compared to nearly two-thirds (64%) reviewing his tenure negatively. Those who voted for the FDP in 2021 are also divided on his performance, split 47% to 47% on whether he has done a good job managing the country’s finances.
The key exception to the current cabinet’s unpopularity is defence minister Boris Pistorius of the SPD. A small majority of Germans (53%) feel he has done a good job in office, compared to only three in ten (29%) who feel he has done a bad job.
But it should be noted that this scepticism towards Germany’s politicians is not limited to those serving in the coalition. Only 36% of Germans have a positive opinion of CDU and opposition leader Friedrich Merz, who is currently slated to be Scholz’s main opponent for chancellor in next year’s election, while half of the German public (51%) see him negatively, including one in four 2021 CDU/CSU voters (23%).
Indeed, when asked who Germans would vote for if they could directly vote for the chancellor, half (48%) say neither. Merz receives the backing of 29%, ahead of Scholz, who is the preferred chancellor of just one in six Germans (16%).
Merz’s lukewarm reception can be contrasted with Markus Söder, leader of the CDU’s Bavarian sister party (CSU) and former rival of Merz for the position of the CDU/CSU’s candidate for chancellor. Nearly half of Germans (47%) have a positive view of the Bavarian premier, against 43% who have a negative view. Söder’s popularity is broad, being more popular than Merz among voters of all major parties except the Greens.
Even among those in the ‘surging’ parties, their popularity is still a clear minority. Just over a third of Germans (35%) have a positive view of Sahra Wagenknecht, while half (51%) see her negatively.
The co-leaders of the AfD have even fewer admirers, only 28% of Germans seeing Alice Weidel positively and only one in five (20%) liking Tino Chrupalla, while around half of the German public (48-55%) see them negatively, with net positive ratings only among those who voted AfD in 2021.
Notably, though, there is an east-west divide with the populist leaders. Half of those living in the former East Germany (47%) see Sahra Wagenknecht positively, against 38% who see her negatively, while East Germans are split 39% to 45% on Alice Weidel and 33% to 35% on Tino Chrupalla.
What are the key issues facing Germany?
Another key reason for the increase in support of the populist parties is the dominance of immigration as an issue, which both the AfD and BSW have made a focus of their campaigns. Half of Germans (49%) list it as one of the three most important issues facing Germany, roughly double the second most common answers – the environment and pensions, both of which are key issues according to a quarter of the German public (25%).
Other prominent issues include healthcare, housing and rent, and the economy, which one in five Germans (20-21%) feel are the key problems facing their country, while one in six list crime (18%), the gap between rich and poor (17%), the energy supply (17%) and defence (16%) as major concerns.
When asked which is the single most important issue for politicians in Germany to address, immigration again stands out as the clear favourite, with one in three Germans (32%) seeing it as the priority. Its status as leading concern is fairly universal across the spectrum, being the most chosen option among voters of all major parties except the Greens.
This includes being the most important issue of two-thirds of 2021 AfD voters (64%), four in ten 2021 FDP voters (42%), a third of Christian Democrats (33%) and 28% of SPD and Left voters. Among those who voted Green in 2021, only one in ten (10%) see it as the key topic for politicians to address, four in ten (41%) instead seeing the environment as the priority.
How have Germans reacted to recent state elections?
For many Germans, though, a growing issue in German politics is the rise of the AfD, whose gains in recent state elections included winning the most votes in Thuringia, marking the first time a far-right party has topped the poll in a significant German election since the 1930s.
Asked which of a list of feelings best described their reaction to the recent state election results, four in ten Germans (38%) said they are ‘worried’, with a further 7% primarily being left ‘anxious’ and 6% feeling ‘sad’.
But while half of the German public (51%) might have seen recent results in a negative light, one in five (20%) describe their reaction in positive terms, with 10% saying they are now ‘optimistic’, alongside 7% feeling ‘happy’ and 3% ‘triumphant’.
As to what should happen next, only three in ten Germans (29%) would be in favour of the AfD leading the Thuringian government, against six in ten (60%) who are opposed to an AfD-led coalition in the east German state. This is despite half of Germans (52%) believing, in principle, that the party that won the most votes should always be part of a coalition. Nonetheless, majority opposition to an AfD-led coalition, even at the state level, is found among all key social and political groups, except for AfD voters.
Even in terms of any form of political co-operation with the AfD, nearly half of Germans (45%) believe that other parties should completely rule it out in all circumstances, as is currently the case. This includes a majority of those who voted CDU/CSU in 2021 (53%), six in ten previous SPD voters (61%) and three-quarters of those that backed the Greens in the last federal election (74%).
Three in ten Germans (30%), however, believe that the other parties should consider co-operation with the AfD on a case-by-case basis, while one in six (16%) think that the party’s cooperation should be actively sought after. Most of the latter category is made up of AfD voters, six in ten (59%) of whom want other parties to seek their cooperation, with just 9% of 2021 CDU/CSU voters and 7% of SPD supporters agreeing.
Nonetheless, there is not optimism that this current ‘cordon sanitaire’ will be held for much longer, with half of Germans (48%) seeing it as likely that at least one of the other major parties will enter a coalition with the AfD within the next five years, while only 37% of the German public think it’s unlikely.
Co-operation with the BSW carries less stigma, with only a quarter of Germans (25%) believing that co-operation should be totally ruled out by other parties, instead nearly half (45%) want the left-wing populist party to be considered on a case-by-case basis, while one in seven (14%) would like to see other parties actively courting Sahra Wagenknecht’s party.
See the full results here and here
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