Majority of SNP voters would be unhappy with an SNP-Alba coalition

Adam McDonnellAssociate Director of Political and Social Research
April 29, 2021, 11:17 AM UTC

Nationalist voters would find joining up with the Scottish Greens much more palatable, however

With the SNP well ahead of their closest rivals in our latest polling, the key question is whether they will be able to secure an overall majority in Holyrood. In 2016 they just fell short of this target and have led a minority government over the last five years, helped by the Scottish Greens voting with them on many issues.

This time round, a majority SNP government or a coalition of pro-independence parties could be significant in the debate around a mandate for a second referendum on Scottish independence. But what do SNP voters think about the potential of joining up with another party?

Seven in ten (72%) of those who intend to give their constituency vote to the SNP would be delighted (29%) or pleased (42%) if SNP got the most seats and formed a coalition with the Scottish Greens. Just 9% of these voters would be disappointed or dismayed with this outcome, and another 13% say they wouldn’t mind.

In stark contrast, far fewer SNP voters would be happy if the SNP joined up with Alex Salmond’s new Alba party. Despite Alba standing as a pro-independence party, 55% of SNP voters say they would be disappointed (30%) or dismayed (24%) if this happened. Just a quarter (24%) say they would be delighted or pleased. Based on current projections, this outcome may not be an option anyway, with Alba polling at just 2% on the regional list vote.

Naturally, the outcome SNP voters are most likely to be happy with is their party gaining an overall majority (93% would be delighted or pleased). Labour and Conservative voters are not too enamoured by any option that includes another SNP government with more than seven in ten Labour voters saying they’d be disappointed or dismayed with any of the outcomes tested. For Conservative voters this figure increases to over nine in ten voters.

See full results here