A Bleak Midwinter for Welsh Lib Dems

Laurence Janta-LipinskiAssociate Director
May 16, 2011, 4:51 AM GMT+0

Laurence Janta-Lipinski looks at the political landscape in Wales going into 2011

With the tuition fee debate rumbling on and Vince Cable’s secretly recorded comments this week, Welsh Lib Dems will find no comfort in our latest Assembly Voting Intention figures for ITV Wales. Welsh Liberal Democrats have lost even more ground on their Labour, Conservative and Plaid colleagues and there is a real danger that next May’s Assembly Election could see them locked out of Welsh regional politics altogether.

Polling at just 6% in the Constituency Vote and only 5% in the Regional Vote, the Liberal Democrats have haemorrhaged support from the heady pre-Westminster Election days when they were polling at 20% and 18% respectively.

Our poll will also prove a further boost for Carwyn Jones and the Welsh Labour Party who must harbour hopes of being able to take full control of the Assembly without a coalition partner. Based on a uniform swing with our figures, the Welsh Labour Party can hope to take 30 of the 60 Assembly seats.

Whilst there is still a long way to go before next May’s Elections, there is no doubt that Kirsty Williams and her colleagues will spend a worrisome Christmas assessing their options for next year. I expect the Welsh Lib Dems to distance themselves greatly from their colleagues in Westminster and would be shocked to see Clegg and Cable on the doorsteps next May.

As well as the Assembly elections next year, there will also be a referendum on giving the National Assembly for Wales increased law-making powers. The yes camp has a firm advantage as we move into the final few months before the vote. With 46% of the Welsh public saying they will vote yes, compared with just 25% who say they will vote no, the yes camp could be forgiven for complacency. This is furthered by looking at the 53% of respondents who claim they are certain to vote in the referendum. Of these respondents, the yes vote trumps the no’s by almost 2:1 (57% yes to 30% no).

There is however one slight area of concern for those hoping for a yes vote next year. When asked how the will vote next May (up until this month the question had been hypothetical) 21% of respondents said they did not know. This will be the key battleground for those in the no camp as they seek to overturn what it perhaps already an insurmountable deficit.

In 2011, YouGov will continue to monitor what the Welsh Public thinks so keep checking the website as we enter what will be a crucial year, not just for the Welsh Liberal Democrats, but the Welsh political landscape as a whole.