Director of Political and Social Research

This morning's voting intention figures for the daily YouGov/Sun poll are Conservatives 39%, Labour 41%, Liberal Democrats 10%. It shows a narrowing of the Labour lead, but until we see that supported in subsequent polls it is too early to tell if it is a a blip or a sign of genuine movement.

This is the first poll we've conducted since the release of Monday's GDP figures which showed the economy shrinking in the final quarter of 2011. The immediate effect has been a big increase in the proportion of people thinking the country will drop back into recession - in our Sunday Times poll at the weekend, 52% of people thought it was likely Britain would go back into recession in the next twelve months, that has now grown to 64%.

51% of people think the Government's cuts are too deep and too fast and they should change direction, this compares to 37% who think that they are necessary and that the short term pain will be worth it in the long run.

Despite this, the Conservatives retain a solid lead over Labour as the party most likely to run the economy well - 38% think the Conservatives will compared to 28% for Labour. Asked about what they think Labour would be doing differently if they were in Government, 55% think they would be making smaller cuts than the government (15% think they'd be cutting about the same amount), 32% think they'd be making bigger tax rises than the Government (19% about the same and 24% smaller) and - the bottom line - 35% think the economy would be performing less well were Labour in power, 24% about the same and 24% better.

See the survey details and full results here

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