UK Opinion Formers Expect A No Vote In Scotland Referendum

Max KowalewskiJunior Research Executive
January 14, 2014, 4:31 PM GMT+0

A majority of UK opinion formers believe the Scottish people will vote to remain part of the Union in September’s referendum.

As polls continue to show a lead for the anti-independence movement, four in five UK opinion formers (79%) believe that the outcome of the Scottish independence referendum in September will be a majority vote against independence. 53% believe that a small majority will vote against independence, with a further 26% stating they expect a large majority to vote against. Only 12% currently expect the independence movement to succeed in September, whilst 8% argue that it is still too early to predict the outcome.

Asked whether they themselves support Scottish independence from the UK, 76% of UK opinion formers state they oppose it. Only 17% are for the idea. The figure does not vary much between voters of the three main political parties, with 81% of Conservative voters, 80% of Labour voters and 83% of Liberal Democrat voters opposing independence. Those opinion formers that would identify themselves as Scottish are predominantly against independence as well, with 73% against it and 24% for.

These figures compare with YouGov research with the British general public which also predominantly opposes Scottish independence, albeit not as strongly as the opinion formers. 55% of English and Welsh people oppose Scottish independence, with only 21% for.

For the study YouGov completed online interviews with 708 opinion formers from its UK Opinion Formers Panel. Opinion Formers are leaders in their field from business, media, politics, NGOs, academia and beyond. Fieldwork was undertaken between 11th and 20th December 2013.The figures have not been weighted.

Explore more data & articles