While Britons tend to feel Reform UK are dominating the political agenda, just 24% believe they’d do a good job of running the country
Reform UK have undeniably had a successful year: they came first in this May’s local elections and have continuously led voting intention polls for four months, both feats no party other than the Conservatives or Labour have achieved in living memory, while their favoured topic of immigration is currently seen as the most important issue facing the country.
It is against this backdrop that Reform UK are kicking off this year’s party conference season, with their meeting in Birmingham likely to have a triumphant mood. But while Nigel Farage’s party might have many devoted followers, it also has many detractors, with 58% of Britons seeing the party unfavourably. So, how do the public really see Reform UK?
A key positive for Reform UK is that they are perceived as the dominant party at the moment, with 44% of Britons feeling they are doing the most to set the agenda, up from 33% in May. This compares to 14% feeling Labour are doing the most to define the political debate (down from 19%), with no more than 3% saying so about any other party.
Even among Labour voters, Reform UK are seen as having a bigger say over the political conversation than the government by a margin of 37% to 27%.
Likely because of this recent success, nearly half of Britons (48%) believe Farage is doing well as leader of Reform UK, though 30% say he’s handling the job badly.
Of course, this is distinct from whether they see Farage favourably, where he has a negative net rating.
What do Britons expect from a Reform UK government?
But Reform UK fare less well when it turns to questions of them taking power. Just 24% of Britons believe a government led by Nigel Farage would do a good job of running the country, with roughly twice as many (49%) expecting a Reform government to do a bad job, including 38% who would anticipate them doing a very bad job. A further 16% expect such a government would do an average job in office.
Similarly, just a third of Britons (32%) believe that the running of the country would improve under a Reform UK government, despite just 11% of the public approving of the current government’s record of running the country. Nearly half of the public (48%) expect the running of the country would get worse.
Despite their ability to lead in voting intention polls where all parties are listed, Reform UK’s lead evaporates in a binary choice against Labour. If Britons had to choose between the two as the outcome of the next election, 43% say they would favour a second term for Labour under Keir Starmer, more than the 37% who want Farage in Number 10 leading a Reform UK government.
More than seven in ten Labour and Lib Dem voters (72-73%) and 67% of Green voters would rather see a second term than see Farage take office, though 13-14% of voters for all three parties would opt for a Reform UK government. By contrast, Conservative voters back a Nigel Farage-led government by 63% to 17%.
Do Britons think Reform UK could handle the economy better than the government does?
A similar picture can be seen when it comes to which potential government would better handle the economy, with a Reform UK government not holding a statistically significant lead over a Labour one on any of the seven aspects of the economy polled.
Near identical numbers of Britons believe either a Labour or Reform UK government would do a better job than the other at managing the economy (27% vs 25%), providing more jobs (25% vs 25%), tackling the deficit (23% vs 24%), keeping prices down (21% vs 22%) or improving living standards (24% vs 26%).
A Labour government, however, holds small leads when it comes to reducing the number of people in poverty (27% vs 20%) and helping people get onto the housing ladder (25% vs 20%).
Notably, a greater number of Britons opt for either alternative compared to when the same questions are asked about a Labour government versus a Conservative government. For instance, 49% of Britons say ‘neither’ or ‘don’t know’ about whether Labour or Reform UK would better manage the economy, relative to 61% doing so when the question is between Labour and the Tories.
Nevertheless, the Conservatives also do not hold a clear lead over Labour on any of the seven aspects of the economy polled.
What do Britons trust Reform UK on?
Reform UK’s inability to convert a clear polling lead into belief they could successfully govern the country is not just limited to the economy. Across all the areas of politics and policy polled, more Britons do not trust the party than do. Nonetheless, the party does have areas of relative strength and weakness.
In keeping with it being Reform UK’s favoured issue, immigration is the area polled for which the public are most likely to have confidence in Nigel Farage’s party. Four in ten (41%) say they trust Reform UK at least a fair amount on immigration, though this is against 49% who have little to no trust in the party on the issue.
Crime has been another focus of the party in recent months, an issue on which 34% of Britons trust Reform UK, while three in ten (30-31%) trust the party to represent people like them, to support businesses and to represent the UK abroad.
On most of the other areas polled, between 25-29% of the public say they have trust in Reform UK, including 28% who would trust them to run public services and 27% who trust them to keep their promises.
The environment and protecting minority groups, though, are two weaker areas for the party, with just one in five Britons (20-21%) trusting them on these issues, compared to 63-64% who say they have little to no trust in Reform UK in these areas.
Of course, there is a political divide at play when it comes to trust in Reform UK, with the most significant one being among Conservative voters.
Those who backed the Tories last year tend to trust Reform UK on immigration (+35 net trust score), crime (+18), supporting businesses (+13) and representing people like them (+12). However, Conservative voters tend to be near evenly split in other areas, such as trusting Reform UK to keep its promises (+1), form an effective government (-3) or manage the economy (-3).
Of the areas polled, Reform UK’s two biggest weaknesses among 2024 Conservative voters are protecting minority groups (-20) and the environment (-22).
The party holds positive net trust ratings among Reform UK voters across all the areas polled, though once again the environment (+41) and protecting minority groups (+33) are weaker areas for the party.
Among Labour, Lib Dem and Green voters, trust for Reform UK on any issue is rare, with net negative ratings across the board. Nonetheless, voters for all three parties have higher levels of trust for Reform UK on immigration than in most other areas, with 28% of Lib Dem voters, 20% of Labour voters and 13% of Green voters trusting Nigel Farage’s party at least a fair amount on the issue.
Who trust Reform UK to represent people like them?
Three in ten Britons (31%) say they would trust Reform UK to represent people like them, though this is not the same across all social groups.
Trust in Reform UK to represent people like them is higher among men (36%) than women (27%), as well as being greater among those who live in working class households (36%) than those classed as being in middle class households (28%). It’s also a belief that is higher among older Britons, with 45% of over 65s and 40% of 50-64 year olds trusting Reform UK to represent them, compared to just 23% of 25-49 year olds and only 14% of 18-24 year olds.
Half of 2024 Conservative voters (51%) trust Reform UK to represent people like them, as do 17% of Lib Dems, 13% of Labour voters and 6% of Green voters.
See the full results on a Reform UK government, trust in Reform UK, Labour vs Reform on the economy, and Labour vs the Conservatives on the economy
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Photo: Getty
