Being different and anti-immigration are the most common reasons behind Reform UK’s appeal
One of the biggest shifts in public opinion since the general election has been the continued rise of Reform UK, with YouGov’s latest voting intention figures putting the party on 23% of the vote, up from the 15% they won in Great Britain last July. But what is driving these gains and how do Britons feel about the next steps for the party?
Who is considering voting for Reform UK?
A quarter of all Britons (24%) say they would consider voting for Reform UK at a future election. This includes 33% of those who voted for the Conservatives at last year’s general election, 9% of those who voted Labour and 8% of Lib Dems.
The party is more attractive to men, with 29% considering voting for Reform, relative to 19% of women. Interest in Reform UK also increases with age, with 36% of over 65s and 28% of 50-64 year olds open to casting their vote for the party in future, compared to 17% of 25-49 year olds and 14% of 18-24 year olds.
Among those who voted Leave in the 2016 EU referendum, they are now the most considered option, with 46% of Leavers considering voting for Reform in a future general election, compared to only 40% who currently say the same of the Conservatives.
What attracts people to Reform UK?
To find out what is behind the Reform surge, we asked those considering voting for the party to tell us in their own words what most attracts them to Reform UK, with the results then categorised by YouGov’s AI-powered Topic Quantifier model.
Reform UK’s distinct identity compared to the established parties is key to its appeal, with 19% of Reform UK considerers saying that the most attractive aspect of the party is the fact they are neither Labour nor the Conservatives, or that they are better than the rest. An additional 9% of considerers gave more individual criticisms of Labour (5%) or the Conservatives (4%) for what has pushed them towards Reform UK.
Their broader difference also has appeal, with 11% of considerers saying the thing that has pulled them most towards the party is the fact that Reform is different and represents a new approach.
Reform’s flagship immigration policies are also central to the party’s appeal, cited as the main attraction by 18% of those considering voting for them. Their wider policy platform and general values are given as the top pull by a further 11%.
Other draws for Reform UK include a belief that it is best for the country and will stand up for Britain, which is the party’s most attractive feature for 7% of considerers, while another 7% say they are primarily drawn to the party by its perceived representation of average Britons.
What are people’s reservations about Reform UK?
While Reform’s gains in polls might be sizeable, those votes are yet to be fully locked in and just 28% of those considering voting for the party (amounting to 7% of Britons) say they have no reservations at all about voting for them.
For the rest of the Reform UK considerers, the party’s lack of experience is one of the most common top sources of apprehension, being cited by 11% as their main reservation about voting for them.
A worry that a Reform UK vote ultimately won’t make a difference also comes up relatively frequently. Concerns that the UK’s first past the post voting system will make backing the party a ‘wasted vote’ are given as the biggest reservation by 9% of considerers, while 8% say that their main source of doubt is that Reform UK will turn out to be just like other parties.
Unease with certain elements of the party is also a more common top reservation, with 7% of those considering Reform UK saying their main reservation is that the party is too right-wing or extreme, alongside another 4% who are troubled by the party’s poor candidate choices and 3% who are concerned about racism in the party.
Reform’s policy platform is also an issue for some considerers, with 4% citing the vagueness of the party’s policy as their biggest reservation about voting for them, while another 6% had issues with specific policies, including 2% uneasy at Reform’s immigration policy and 2% most concerned about their policy on the NHS.
Is Reform UK a main party?
Key to Reform UK’s success at the next general election will be the extent to which they have convinced potential voters that they are a viable alternative to the Conservatives as a party of official opposition, or even government. If they cannot, a perception of them being a wasted vote could limit their prospects and see gains returning home. After all, 38% of those currently considering voting Reform UK say they would also consider voting for the Conservatives.
Despite opinion polls now showing Reform UK on similar levels of support to the Conservatives and Labour, the British public are yet to consider them a ‘main party’, with just 29% of Britons seeing them on that level. This compares to 90% who say so of Labour, 88% who consider the Conservatives to be a ‘main party’ and 44% who say the same of the Lib Dems.
While this does put Reform UK on a peg most similar to the SNP, who 24% of the public see as a ‘main party’, it does represent an increase since July last year, when only 19% of Britons classified Reform as such.
There is a partisan element to whether people consider Reform UK to be a ‘main party’, with 79% of Reform voters considering them one, relative to 36% of Conservatives and 17% of Labour and Lib Dem voters.
Of those considering voting for Reform UK in future, though, two-thirds (67%) see the party as a ‘main party’, against 30% who say it is not one, leaving open the potential for some considerers to not see them as a worthwhile vote in a general election.
How do voters feel about a Conservative-Reform merger?
The rise of Reform UK has tended to pose the biggest threat to the Conservatives, with the Tories being the largest source of new Reform voters at both the last election and since. The threat of the two parties splitting the right-of-centre vote has led some, including Nigel Farage, to advocate for a merger of the two parties.
But such a prospect splits both support bases. Just 47% of those who voted Conservative at the last election would support a merger, with this falling to 38% among those who chose Reform UK in the 2024 election. Those currently considering Reform UK, though, are a little more open, with 48% supportive of a merger, against 36% who are opposed to a union with the Tories.
Among all Britons who support a merger, there is a near-three-way split on how the new party would turn out, with 30% saying it would be more like Reform UK, 26% more like the Conservatives and 32% who believe it would be equally like both parties.
However, among just those considering Reform UK who support a merger, there is a greater expectation that a merged party would be more like Reform UK, with 41% expecting it to the dominant tradition in the new party, relative to 21% who expect it to be more influenced by the Tories.
By contrast, those Reform considerers who oppose a merger tend to suspect a unified party would be more like the Conservatives, with 49% believing so, compared to 22% who suspect it would be more like Reform and 8% who feel it would take equally from both parties.
How would Britons feel about Reform UK replacing the Conservatives?
Without a merger, there is a worry among some Conservatives that Reform UK could surpass them as the largest right-wing party in the UK, something that has already happened in YouGov’s first voting intention polls since the general election.
But there is only limited appetite among the public for such an overtaking to become more solid. Half of Britons (49%) would see Reform UK replacing the Tories as a negative, compared to just 21% who would see it positively and a further 17% who would see it in neutral terms.
While Reform UK voters are unsurprisingly the most enthusiastic, with 83% seeing the prospect positively, Conservatives are not as clearly negative. Although nearly half of Conservative voters (45%) would negatively view the Conservatives losing their status as the main right-wing party in the UK, there are a quarter of Tories (24%) who would see this as a positive and another quarter (25%) who say they would not be bothered either way.
Disapproval is instead found more strongly among Labour and Lib Dem voters, more than seven in ten of which (71-72%) would feel negatively about the Tories being replaced as the largest right-wing party by Reform UK.
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