Tories pushed into close third place
The first YouGov/Times voting intention survey since the 2024 general election shows a close contest for the top spot between Labour (26%) and Reform UK (25%).
The Conservatives are in a close third place (22%), with the Lib Dems much further back on 14% and the Greens taking 8% of the vote.
The results come six months after the 2024 general election which saw Keir Starmer put into power with a landslide majority, albeit on a low share of the vote. Only a slim majority of Labour’s voters continue to say that they would back the party in another election (54%), with their former supporters peeling off in all directions. Labour has lost 7% of its 2024 voters to the Lib Dems, 6% to the Greens, 5% to Reform UK and 4% to the Tories, while a further 17% say they don’t know who they would vote for currently.
The results make for particularly grim reading for Kemi Badenoch, who must wrest momentum away from Reform UK in order to prevent Nigel Farage’s party from supplanting the Tories as the perceived official opposition.
While Badenoch may have hoped that her positioning would bring Reform UK defectors back into the fold, our results show that just 4% of those who voted for Reform UK at the 2024 general election now plan to vote for the Conservatives – while at the same time the Tories have lost 15% of their 2024 voters to Farage’s party.
Age and gender results
With much having been made about Reform UK’s appeal to young voters, the results show that they have supplanted the Tories as the most popular right wing party among 18-24 year olds: 19% of the youngest age cohort say they would back Farage’s party at a new general election, compared to only 5% who favour the Conservatives.
Nevertheless, Labour continue to be the most popular party among 18-24 year olds, at 36%, and indeed this is the highest vote share they achieve with any age group. A further 22% of 18-24 year olds say they will vote Green, again the most promising age group for that party.
The Conservatives continue to be the most popular party among the oldest age group (those aged 65 and above), although Reform UK are nipping at their heels – 35% of over-65s currently say they intend to vote for the Tories, compared to 30% for Reform UK.
Among men and women, votes are divided, but in different directions. Among women there is a direct 25%-25% split at the top between Labour and the Conservatives, whereas for men there is a close 30% Reform UK versus 27% Labour split.
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Photo: Getty
