Only one in five expect or want the party to win the next election
This week’s Conservative conference is their first in opposition for fifteen years, with the party faithful gathering to examine why things went so wrong as to cause the party’s worst-ever election result, and where to go next.
The contenders in the ongoing leadership election will offer their own assessments of this, but how do the British public view both the recently departed government and the future prospects of a party they just kicked from office?
What do Britons see as the Conservatives biggest successes and failures in power?
We asked Britons what they feel were the single biggest success and single biggest failure of the Conservative-led governments that were in power from 2010 to 2024, with our AI-powered topic model then categorising the responses.
The handling of Covid and the financial support given at the start of the pandemic is the achievement Britons are most likely to be credit the government with, cited by one in eight Britons (12%), with a further 4% seeing the vaccination programme as the top success. A third of 2024 Conservative voters (32%) view either of these policies as the thing recent Tory governments can be most proud of.
Brexit is seen as the most significant accomplishment of the 2010-2024 period by one in ten Britons (10%), including a quarter of Reform UK voters (26%) and one in six Conservatives (16%), while 6% of Britons, including one in eight Conservative voters (13%), see their handling of the economy as the last government’s biggest success.
Not everybody, though, was able to find an accomplishment within the last 14 years of public policy, with 22% of the public finding some way to say the recent Conservative governments ‘had no successes’. A further 22% of Britons said ‘don’t know’ to the question.
When it comes to failings, Britons find it easier to find an answer, with only 1% saying the last government had no failings and only one in eight (13%) unsure. There’s also the case that what is seen as a success by some is a failure for others.
Offset against the one in ten Britons that see Brexit as the top achievement are one in six (17%) who list it as the biggest failure of the Conservatives’ time in office. This includes 28% of Lib Dems and 22% of Labour voters, though around one in ten Tory and Reform voters (9-11%) also see the Conservatives’ Brexit policy as its most major failing.
Similarly, while some saw the Johnson government’s handling of the pandemic as the highlight of the 2010-24 Conservative period in power, it’s also commonly seen as the most serious blunder of it. One in seven (14%) Britons see general mishandling of the pandemic as the largest fault across 14 years in office, with a further 4% specifying partygate and 1% singling out PPE contracts.
The failure to stop immigration is the biggest fault for one in ten Britons (10%), including one in five Conservative voters (21%) and three in ten Reform UK voters (31%), while corruption and dishonesty was the core weakness of recent governments for 7% of the public.
Austerity and public services have also been a key concern, with 5% of Britons seeing mismanaging the NHS, housing or education as the single top failing between 2010 and 2024 and a further 3% identifying austerity itself as the biggest fault.
What do Britons think the future holds for the Conservatives?
A key challenge for the Conservatives going forwards will be moving beyond this broadly negative view of their last stint in office, though right now the public see this as more of a longer-term challenge than a short-term one.
Only one in five Britons (19%) expect the Conservatives to win the next general election, including only half of 2024 Conservative voters (50%), with the most common assumption – held by nearly half of Britons (47%) – being that the Tories will have to wait for a future election to return to government. Only 8% of the public expect the party to never to attain power again.
What is seen as likely, though, is not necessarily the same as what the public want. While a similar proportion of Britons want the Tories to win the next election (22%) as think it’s likely, the fact only one in ten (10%) want the party to return to power at an election after the next means that only a third of the public (32%) currently hope to ever see the Tories back in office. This includes just one in seven of those who voted Labour in July (15%) and one in three of those who backed Reform (35%).
For 36% of Britons, the desired future of the Conservatives involves them never winning an election again.
Perhaps key to this scepticism that the Conservatives will win the next election is the fact only one in three Britons (32%) think they have a good understanding of what caused their worst-ever election result and consequent ejection from office, while half of the public (50%) think they still don’t understand why they lost.
This belief that the Tories haven’t fully grasped the reason for their historic defeat extends to a small majority of Reform UK voters (53%), six in ten Lib Dems (59%) and around two-thirds of Labour voters (68%). Even among those who endorsed the Conservatives in the election, nearly three in ten (28%) aren’t convinced the party understands why they now sit in opposition.
Another potential hurdle to the Conservatives winning a future election is the presence of Reform UK, with the two parties both splitting the right-wing vote. How to deal with this has been a matter of debate in both parties, but there is also the possibility of Reform simply supplanting the Conservatives as the largest party of the right, similar to what has previously occurred to traditional mainstream right-wing parties in several western countries, including Austria, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands and Sweden.
The public are split as to whether this could happen here, with 36% of Britons seeing Reform UK overtaking the Conservatives as the largest party of the right within the next decade as a likely possibility, against 42% who see it as unlikely.
If this did occur, it would cause a broadly negative reaction. Only one in five Britons (19%) say they would feel positively about Reform UK overtaking the Conservatives, while half of the public (48%) see it negatively, though one in six (18%) say they wouldn’t feel particularly strongly either way.
Unsurprisingly, Reform UK voters would be most happy about supplanting the Tories, with eight in ten (80%) seeing their party becoming the most popular right-wing force as a positive. One in six Conservative voters (17%) would feel similarly, though this is outweighed by the 51% who be displeased by such a turn of events, something shared with seven in ten Labour and Lib Dem voters (68-70%).
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Photo: Getty
