Devolution with current or more powers the most popular arrangements in both countries
Twenty-seven years ago, Scotland and Wales voted for the establishment of devolved political institutions, which celebrated their 25th anniversaries earlier this year. Over the past quarter-century, they have gained further powers beyond those originally devolved, most notably the powers given to Scotland by the Smith Commission in the aftermath of the Scottish independence referendum a decade ago.
But which constitutional settlement is most appropriate for both countries remains the subject of political debate. In Scotland, there remains a substantial proportion of the population committed to full independence, while Wales has seen scepticism towards existing levels of devolution, including opposition to the recently approved expansion of the Senedd and a single-issue party committed to abolishing Welsh devolution winning 4% of the vote in the last Senedd elections.
There are various routes either country could take, but at present, the options with the broadest support in both Scotland and Wales are ‘devolution with more powers’ and ‘devolution with the current level of powers’, which around half of Scots (46-51%) and four in ten Welsh people (39-40%) are in favour of.
The most notable distinction between Scotland and Wales is on full independence, which on this question format is supported by four in ten Scots (41%) and only a quarter of Welsh people (24%). Somewhat balancing this is the greater willingness in Wales to abolish devolution and reinstate direct rule from London, with 31% of the Welsh public backing such a reversal, compared to only 21% of the Scottish public.
A watering down of existing devolution arrangements finds little interest in either country, favoured by only one in five Scots (19%) and less than a quarter of the Welsh public (23%). Autonomy, whereby nations would remain within the UK but hold power over pretty much everything except defence and foreign affairs, similar to the arrangements in Northern Ireland between 1922 and 1972, is supported by 42% in Scotland and 32% in Wales.
Where does Scotland stand on devolution?
But the number saying they support a particular option to any degree doesn’t necessarily tell the full story – some options excite greater enthusiasm than others, with the strength of opposition also varying.
In Scotland, for instance, devolution with current powers may have relatively broad support, but it elicits fairly little strong emotion – only 10% of Scots say they strongly support the status quo. This is around the same as the number who strongly support the abolition of devolution (12%), despite the 46% who are overall supportive of the current set-up being roughly twice those who support ending devolution altogether (21%). Similarly, only 14% say they are strongly opposed to the existing constitutional settlement, the fewest of any of the options polled.
The fact that no option individually holds the support of much more than half of Scots might seem a little surprising at first, but it is more understandable when considering the options as a spectrum – ranging from full independence at one end to abolition of devolution at the other.
When looking at how support for one option relates to support for the others, as below, what becomes clear is that there are really two somewhat distinct blocs.
The first of these are those who favour greater self-government than now, with at least two-thirds of those who support independence, autonomy or enhanced devolution (68-87%) also supporting the other options. Against this is the overlap (63-70%) between supporting devolution with fewer powers and favouring the abolition of devolution.
This leaves the status quo as something of a compromise position between the two groups, though it is more popular among those who want more self-government (54-62% of which also support the status quo) than with those who want less (24-32%).
This division into distinct groups can also be seen by looking at how support for the alternatives varies by party.
Conservatives are the most devolution-sceptic, with abolishing the devolved institutions acceptable to six in ten Scottish Tories (58%) and reducing the number of powers they have being supported by half (51%). No more than one in eight Conservative voters (3-12%) support any of the three options that would involve more self-government for Scotland.
By contrast, SNP voters are most open to greater self-government, with 85% supporting both independence and devolution with more powers, and two-thirds (67%) favouring an autonomous Scotland within the United Kingdom. A majority of SNP voters (54%) also view the existing devolved settlement as acceptable.
Labour supporters sit firmly in the middle of the constitutional spectrum, with the current arrangements being their preferred option, having the support of 56% of those who voted for the party in July. Only a quarter of Labour voters (26%) would support an independent Scotland, while only one in five (19%) would be open to abolishing the Scottish parliament and government.
Particularly noticeable is how comparatively uniform support for the status quo is across parties, with those in favour of devolution with the current level of powers including four in ten Conservative and Lib Dem voters (both 41%), 54% of SNP voters and 56% of Labour voters. The range in support between parties of the other constitutional alternatives is at least three times larger.
Where does Wales stand on devolution?
As in Scotland, despite being overall relatively popular, devolution with current powers has very few who are strongly in favour of it (8%). This reinforces the notion that the status quo in both countries is more something of a compromise between those who want more or less self-government than something that is viewed as the ideal set-up in its own right.
Abolition of devolution, on the other hand, excites a lot of passion among those who are supportive, with one in five Welsh people (20%) strongly in favour of reversing the creation of the Senedd and Welsh government, out of a total 31% who support abolition to any extent. It is still not a plurality view, however, with 46% of the Welsh public opposed to ending devolution.
Full independence remains clearly off the cards to most Welsh people, with only a quarter (24%) supportive, against six in ten (61%) being opposed to the idea. Even among those who voted in July for Plaid Cymru, who officially favour splitting from the UK, only 58% would support it.
Instead, the most popular option among Plaid Cymru voters is devolution with more powers, which three-quarters (77%) are in favour of, while autonomy is an attractive alternative for six in ten (62%). Nonetheless, half of Plaid voters (53%) support the status quo.
Labour voters are a little more sceptical of increased self-government, though a majority (55%) would support devolution with more powers, similar to the 56% who are in favour of the existing arrangements. Few Labour, or Plaid, voters support any diminishing of Wales’s powers, with just one in eleven Plaid voters (9%) and one in six Labour voters (16-17%) in favour of abolishing or weakening devolution.
But while Labour and Plaid sit on one side of the divide, the Conservatives and Reform UK sit on the other. No more than one in five of either parties’ voters would support any expansion of the powers of the Welsh state, with only one in six Reform UK voters (17%) and a quarter of Conservatives (25%) even supporting the existing political set-up, the latter a noticeable contrast from the four in ten Scottish Tories (41%) who favour their status quo.
Rather, two-thirds of Conservatives (66%) and six in ten Reform UK voters (61%) would be happy to see the devolved institutions in Cardiff Bay abolished, though nearly half (45-47%) would settle for a devolved government with fewer powers.
See the full Scottish results here and the full Welsh results here
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