Net economic optimism increases from -16 before the election to -2, but the public still think the economy is in a bad state
The economy and the cost of living has been the dominant issue in the public consciousness for two-and-a-half years now, with it playing a key role Labour winning the election. Many voters – particularly those that switched to Labour – say that addressing the cost of living should be one of the main priorities for the new government.
This is hardly surprising – only one in ten Britons (10%) currently believe that the economy is in a good state, with nearly two-thirds (64%) thinking it is in a bad state, including one in six (17%) viewing ‘very bad’ as the most apt description. Only one in five Britons (21%) say they have both been able to maintain their pre-cost-of-living crisis spending levels and will continue to be able to do so, compared to 55% who say they have had to make cuts and 18% who say they expect to.
The public’s optimism on the economy could, though, be about to turn a corner. While there has not exactly been a surge in optimism, 27% say they expect the economy to improve over the next year and 29% expecting it worsen. This represents the strongest net economic optimism score (-2) in the last two years and a clear improvement on the net score of -16 shortly before the election, when only 19% expected the economy to get better and 35% anticipated a worsening situation in the year ahead.
There is a clear partisan component to this swing, suggesting the election outcome is playing a role in the public’s improved outlook. At the very start of July, 30% of those intending to vote Conservative and just 26% of Labour supporters expected the economy to get better over the next twelve months. A week after the election only 15% of those who voted Conservative still anticipated things picking up by this time next year, with half (49%) of Labour voters now believing economic conditions will improve. Lib Dem supporters have similarly seen a surge in optimism (‘get better’ doubling to 36%), while Reform UK voters remain pessimistic (an unchanged figure of only 12% expecting an improvement).
Nonetheless, though the jump in the last few weeks has been bigger than usual, it does follow a broader trend. The number expecting the economy to get worse had already reduced from 48% last August to 35% at the start of July, with those expecting an improvement growing from 15% to 19% over the same period.
The boost in national economic optimism, has not translated to a substantive increase in the number expecting their own household financial situation to improve over the next year. Only one in six Britons (16%) believe their circumstances will improve, while 44% expect them to remain steady and 31% think they will get worse – these figures are all almost identical to our immediate pre-election polling.
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Photo: Getty
