General election 2024: Labour holds 24pt lead in Wales

July 02, 2024, 5:12 PM GMT+0

Conservatives and Reform UK tied for second place

A new YouGov voting intention poll in Wales for ITV News shows Labour on 40% of the vote, 24 points ahead of both the Conservatives and Reform UK, who are tied for second place on 16% apiece.

This is our first voting intention poll for Wales to use the same MRP methodology that we have been using for our national voting intention polls this month. The results are therefore not directly comparable to previous Wales polls.

Plaid Cymru come fourth with 14% of the vote, with the Lib Dems taking 7% and the Greens 5%.

Only around half (47%) of 2019 Conservative voters are going to back the party again this year. Three in ten (29%) say they will instead vote for Reform UK, while another one in nine (11%) are now backing Labour.

One in five Plaid Cymru 2019 voters (21%) are likewise shifting their support to Labour. With other smaller losses to other parties, only 55% of those who voted Plaid Cymru at the last election are sticking with the party.

By contrast, Labour is holding on to 74% of its 2019 vote share.

See the full results here

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Photo: Getty