General election 2024: Labour leads SNP in Scotland by six points

Matthew SmithHead of Data Journalism
June 29, 2024, 8:00 AM GMT+0

Labour are winning over a quarter of voters who backed other major parties in 2019

A new YouGov voting intention poll in Scotland for Sky News shows Labour with a six point lead over the SNP, with Keir Starmer’s party on 35% to the nationalists’ 29%.

This is our first voting intention poll for Scotland to use the same MRP methodology that we have been using for our national voting intention polls this month. The results are therefore not directly comparable to previous Scotland polls.

The Conservatives and Lib Dems tie for third place on 11% apiece, Reform UK are on 8% and the Greens 5%.

A quarter of 2019 SNP voters (24%) are now intending to back Labour – the party is likewise attracting similar numbers of former Lib Dem and Tory voters (25-26%). The Conservatives are also suffering the loss of a further fifth of their 2019 electorate in Scotland to Reform UK (22%) – fewer than half of their voters from the last election intend to stick with them (46%).

When it comes to the issues that will most decide how Scots vote on 4 July, health and the NHS top the list at 60%. The cost of living comes in second on 52%, with the economy a distant third on 35%.

Scottish independence ranks fifth on the list, with 17% of Scots saying it is one of up to three top election issues for them. Among those currently intending to vote for the SNP it ranks third, with 41% saying it is a top issue for them; for those who voted for the party in 2019 it ranks fourth on 27%.

Why are Scots voting the way they are?

Because of both the devolved government and the independence debate, Scots have additional considerations for casting their vote than people in England.

Nevertheless, when asked why they are choosing the party they will vote for, the largest number (40%) say it is simply that it is the party they like most. A further one in five (22%) say they are casting their vote in the way that they think will best affect whether Scotland becomes independent or stays in the UK, while a similar number (21%) say they are voting in the way that will best affect which party becomes the UK government.

A further one in eight (12%) say they are voting in a way that shows their support or opposition to the Scottish government in Holyrood.

Scots have a tendency to think that the Westminster Parliament and the Scottish Parliament have an equal impact on their day-to-day life (38%), while similar numbers think one has more impact than the other (20% for Westminster, 23% for Holyrood).

See the full results here

What do you think about Scottish independence, the general election, and everything else? Have your say, join the YouGov panel, and get paid to share your thoughts. Sign up here

Photo: Getty