Reform now 1pt ahead of the Tories, although this is still within the margin of error

June 13, 2024, 7:31 PM GMT+0

With Reform UK having seen a slow but steady upward trend in their vote over the last few months, there had been whispers that the day might come when a poll shows the party overtaking the unpopular Conservatives.

That day has finally arrived. The latest YouGov voting intention survey, conducted 12-13 June, has Reform UK one point ahead of the Conservatives on 19% to 18%. While numerically ahead, it is worth keeping sight of the fact that these figures are well within the margin of error of one another – we will not be able to tell for some time whether Reform can sustain or improve their position relative to the Conservatives.

Given these considerations, it may be more fair to say at this point in time - given the results of the last few polls - that Reform UK are neck and neck with the Conservatives.

None of that is to downplay the momentousness of Reform UK’s rise. The fact that Nigel Farage’s party are neck and neck with the governing Conservatives is a seismic shift in the voting landscape.

While Reform UK might not see the benefits immediately – the first past the post system means that the party is unlikely to pick up many seats, if any, on a vote share of this size – such a showing could internally cripple the Conservatives, potentially providing Farage the opportunity to force a merger of the two parties he has recently spoken of.

Elsewhere in our voting intention results, Labour are on 37%, down one point from the previous poll, while the Liberal Democrats – who saw a four point boost in our previous poll – have also declined by a single point, to 14%. The Greens are likewise down one point to 7%.

See the full results here

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Photo: Getty