European Parliament voting intention, May 2024

Mark CunninghamContent Editor
June 05, 2024, 6:11 PM GMT+0

From 6-9 June, Europeans will head to the polls to elect their representatives for the European Parliament.

Held every five years, this year’s election results will act as a barometer of the current political climate across the continent as voters grapple with concerns over borders, global conflicts, and financial stability. It is also the first election to take place where the UK has not participated, following its withdrawal from the EU in 2020.

YouGov has conducted polling across some key nations in the European Parliament (Germany, France, Denmark, Sweden, Spain, and Italy) to find which parties are on track to take the most seats in Strasbourg following the vote.

The right are ahead in Germany, France, Italy and Spain

At the heart of Europe, Germany holds the largest number of parliamentary seats in the EU, with a total of 96 seats. Here, the Christian Democratic Union (with the Christian Social Union) are on course to receive 29% of the vote, making them the largest German party for another term.

At the time fieldwork was conducted at the beginning of May, 20% planned to vote for right-wing eurosceptics Alternative for Germany, up from 11% in 2019. However, with the party beset by scandals over the course of the month, their voting share may prove somewhat lower on voting day itself.

Germany’s governing party – the Social Democratic Party - are expected to retain a 16% vote share, while The Greens/Alliance 90 will see a diminished vote share of 15%, down six points from 2019.

The French election will see the National Rally come out on top with one in three (32%) planning to vote for Marine Le Pen’s right-wing party. The Ensemble alliance (consisting of Macron’s Renaissance, MoDem, Horizons and UDI) is trailing behind in second place, on track to receive 17%. The Socialist Party (in coalition with ‘Place Publique’) have made gains in the last few months, with our latest poll from May placing them third with 13% of the vote.

In Italy the nation’s governing party Brothers of Italy secure around one quarter (25%) of the vote share. This marks a significant increase for the party in the European Parliament, which garnered only 6% of the vote in 2019, reflecting their growing influence since prime minister Giorgia Meloni assumed office.

Trailing in second place are the centre-left Democratic Party, with 18% support from Italian voters, followed by the populist ‘Five Star Movement’ on 14%.

Lega ('League'), which is currently the largest Italian party in the European Parliament having been the largest government party domestically at the time of the previous elections, wins just 8% of the vote. This is a significant drop from the 2019 result, when the party took 34% of votes cast.

In Spain, the right-wing ‘People’s Party’ is significantly ahead , commanding a third of the vote share at 35% - a fifteen-point increase since 2019. A quarter of voters (27%) plan to support the Socialist Workers’ Party, while 15% favour the far-right group VOX.

Nordics favour the Social Democrats, yet right-wing parties remain popular

In the Nordics, the Social Democrat parties lead in popularity in both Sweden and Denmark. Nearly one in three (29%) intend to vote for them in Sweden, maintaining their position as the most popular Swedish party in the European Parliament and marking a six-point increase to their vote share.

In Denmark, one in five (21%) will vote for the Danish Social Democrats. This is the same vote share they received in the 2019 European Parliament elections, despite coming second overall. The Socialist People’s Party (also known as The Green Left), are to receive 12% of the vote here.

In both nations, right-leaning groups are trailing behind but remain popular enough to take some seats. The Sweden Democrats, the country’s most prominent right-wing party, are polling second on 23%.

In Denmark, the right-leaning vote is primarily divided among the Danish People’s Party (11%), the Liberal Alliance (11%), and the Liberal Party, Venstre (10%). Venstre had been the winners of the 2019 elections, having taken 24% of the vote five years ago.

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