West Midlands and Tees Valley mayoral voting intention

Matthew SmithHead of Data Journalism
April 29, 2024, 5:00 PM GMT+0

With voters across the country heading to the polls for mayoral elections, YouGov calls the vote for two of the biggest regional contests

Aside from a raft of local council elections, this week also sees votes for 12 metro mayors across the country. While the most prominent of these is the London mayoral contest – which Sadiq Khan is expected to easily win – two other contests are of particular note: those in the West Midlands and Tees Valley.

These are the only two mayoralties that are currently held by Conservatives. With the Tory government languishing in the national polls, the outcome of these two contests will help shape the media narrative as we head into the general election later this year. If the Conservatives lose both seats, Rishi Sunak’s defeat at the polls will be seen as virtual inevitable. Should the Tories hold on to one or both of them, then the narrative will shift to whether Sunak can make a comeback, and raise questions about Keir Starmer’s leadership of Labour.

Now new YouGov data shows how the public intend to vote in both of these crucial contests just days ahead of the election.

West Midlands contest too close to call

Conservative incumbent Andy Street is hoping to secure a third term as West Midlands mayor, having first been elected in 2017.

Our poll shows the vote is on a knife edge, with 41% saying they intend to vote for Street, while 39% say they would back his Labour challenger Richard Parker. These results are within the margin of error of one another, with the outcome therefore too close to call.

In terms of minor parties, Reform UK’s Elaine Williams is taking 9% of the vote, and the Greens’ Siobhan Harper-Nunes is on 6%.

The Lib Dem’s Sunny Virk takes just 2% of the vote, while independent Akhmed Yakoob is on 3%.

Tees Valley – Ben Houchen holds seven point lead

The Tees Valley contest likewise sees a Tory incumbent – Ben Houchen – attempting to win a third mayoral term.

Ben Houchen has a more comfortable lead over this Labour opponent Chris McEwan, with the former on 51% to the latter’s 44%. A Lib Dem candidate – Simon Thorley – takes the remaining 5% of the vote.

See the full results for the West Midlands contest here

See the full results for the Tees Valley contest here

What do you think of Andy Street, Ben Houchen, the forthcoming local and mayoral elections, and everything else? Have your say, join the YouGov panel, and get paid to share your thoughts. Sign up here.

Photo: Getty

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