Britons now think that Labour will win a majority at the next election

Beth MannSenior Research Executive
October 21, 2022, 4:40 PM GMT+0

One in three Britons expect Labour to win a ‘large’ majority

Liz Truss has resigned as leader of the Conservatives and prime minister after 44 days in office, with her government hitting record low approval ratings. The image of the Conservative party declined in tandem with the former PM, with the Labour party now seen as better to handle almost all issues.

As a result, voting intention polls are now consistently showing leads of 30 points or more for Labour.

But despite Labour having led in the polls since December 2021, it is only now that Britons actually feel like they could actually win the next general election.

In our latest poll, conducted following Liz Truss’s resignation, almost two thirds of Britons think Labour will form the government after the next election (65%), including 51% who think Labour will win a majority and 33% who think that it will be a large majority.

This latter figure represents a sizeable increase in the number who think Labour will win a large majority, which just four days ago stood at 24%. At that time, 44% expected a Labour majority of any size, and 59% predicted some form of Labour election victory.

While Labour’s perceived chances of election success have been slowly growing since mid-2021, even after Partygate the Tories were still seen as the more likely victors. It was not until the disastrous mini-Budget that opinion dramatically shifted towards seeing Labour as the favourites. Only 19% of Britons in our latest survey think the Tories will form the next government, including just 9% who think they will retain a majority.

The public want the next general election to be brought forward to this year

Britons both expect a Labour election victory, and want to see an election happen. New YouGov polling finds the British public want a general election to be called this year, pulling it forward from its expected date in 2024, by 63% to 23%. This includes four in ten (39%) of those who voted Conservative in 2019.

Photo: Getty

See the full results here

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