In recent days Ukrainian forces have made significant gains in retaking large areas in the east of the country from Russian forces.
Although British headlines have been dominated by the death of Queen Elizabeth II, it appears that this news from Ukraine has cut through: new YouGov political data tracking Britons’ response to the war in Ukraine, has seen a significant shift in opinion when it comes to who is ‘winning’. For the first time since the conflict began in February, Britons are more likely to think that Ukraine has the advantage (31%) than Russia (14%).
When last asked in June, just 6% of Britons said Ukraine had the advantage, compared to 37% who said Russia.
Amongst people who have been following the news of the war very or fairly closely, the proportion of people who say Ukraine has the advantage is even higher, reaching 38%.
Despite this swing, the British public are still not optimistic that the end of the war is in sight – almost half (46%) say that Ukraine and Russia will still be at war in a year’s time.
Just 34% think that there will be a resolution in the next 12 months, although this is up ten points compared to three months ago.
Nevertheless, three in ten (29%) believe that this time next year Ukraine will have kicked out Russian forces, compared to just 13% who said this in June.
Meanwhile, only 5% now say that Ukraine is likely to be under Russian control in a year’s time, down six points on June figures (11%).
People who are following stories about the conflict closely are even less optimistic that the conflict is in its final stages, with half (51%) saying that they think the conflict will still be ongoing this time next year.
However, a third (34%) think Ukraine will be an independent nation.