I should start with a confession. I am not neutral. I first wrote in favour of the Alternative Vote (AV) three decades ago. I advocated it in evidence to the Jenkins Commission on voting systems in the late Nineties. I am delighted it has climbed so high on the political agenda. I want the coming referendum to produce a thumping ‘yes’ majority.
However, a special YouGov survey suggests that the referendum will endorse first-past-the-post (FPTP), kill the chances of reform for a generation – and possibly derail the current coalition between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. Just weeks ago, commitment to a referendum was the single most important demand that Nick Clegg made in his negotiations with David Cameron. Apart from his party’s long-standing belief in electoral reform, he had a compelling reason to insist on a referendum. He knew his decision to join an axe-wielding, Conservative-led coalition could well cost his party votes at the next election. With AV, it would retain many seats it would otherwise lose. Without AV, the Lib Dems’ prospects at the next general election could be bleak.
That, though, is the danger that the Lib Dems now face. The outcome is not yet set in stone: most Britons say they could yet change their mind. A drive to persuade voters that AV is vital for the modernisation of British politics might yet succeed. But YouGov’s data suggests that one vital condition of a ‘yes’ majority is that Labour campaigns strongly for AV. In other words, Clegg’s future depends on support from the party he rejected two months ago.
This is what YouGov did. First, we asked a single question. We briefly described the AV system – how voters would vote 1, 2, 3 rather than mark their ballot paper with an ‘x’, and how counting would continue, and the least popular candidates eliminated until someone passed the 50 per cent mark. Then we asked respondents how they would vote in a referendum. This showed a clear, though not overwhelming, majority for reform. Forty-four per cent said they would vote ‘yes’, 34% no, while 5 per cent said they would not vote and 17 per cent did not know.* If we count only those who took sides, ‘yes’ beat ‘no’ by 57-43 per cent. This is consistent with previous polls on the same topic.
A few days later we tested the issue in more detail with a separate but similar sample. This time we put a series of statements on AV before asking people how they would vote in the referendum. We posed six arguments in favour of reform, and six against. They were ordered randomly. We asked people to assess the strength of each argument in turn.
This is a form of deliberative polling. Instead of just asking people ‘cold’ for their top-of-the-head response, we warm them up by getting them to think about various facets of the issue first. It is something we often do for private clients, and it can be very effective. Six years ago we conducted a similar exercise on Labour’s plans for elected English regional assemblies. When people were asked ‘cold’, most backed the idea; but after they had considered the pros and cons, they turned decisively against it. We warned that the referendums would fail; and they did.
Our latest research suggests that something similar could happen with AV. Most people can see merits on both sides. For example, 63 per cent regarded as effective the argument that ‘the present system is better because it is straightforward: the candidate that wins the most votes locally becomes the Member of Parliament’. But almost as many, 62 per cent, regarded as effective the opposite view: ‘AV is better because the winning candidate needs the support of at least half of local voters to become MP’.
What matters, though, is the conclusion people reached after they had weighed up all twelve arguments. This time, just 33 per cent said they would vote for AV, while 34 per cent would vote against. The rest were either unsure (24 per cent) or would not vote (9 per cent). If we count only those who took sides, 51 per cent said ‘no’ and 49 per cent 'yes'.
When we compare the 'warm' with the 'cold' results, two big changes can be seen. Overall, there is a large fall in the proportion saying ‘yes’, and a big increase in the don’t knows. This suggests that many people whose current, top-of-the-head response is 'yes' are giving unfocussed support to something that sounds vaguely sensible. When required to think more about it, they start to harbour doubts.
The second big shift from ‘cold’ to 'warm' responses concerns Labour voters. Counting only those who take sides, Labour supporters, asked 'cold', divide 59-41 per cent in favour of AV – but, warmed up by the arguments, flip round to 58-42 per cent against reform. Many Labour supporters grow nervous when they realise that a switch to AV would help the Lib Dems and reduce the chances of Labour winning power outright.
Conservative and Lib Dem supporters are more consistent. Although more of both groups say 'don’t know', once they are warmed up, the figures for those who take sides change little. Conservatives divide 63-37 per cent against reform when asked ‘cold’, and 66-34 per cent once they have considered the pros and cons. Not surprisingly, Lib Dems are overwhelmingly in favour: 81-19 per cent when asked ‘cold’, and 85-15 per cent, after they are warmed up.
It should be stressed that the matter is far from settled. Just 30 per cent of the public say their mind is made up. Fully 60 per cent say they will wait until nearer the time. Past experience of referendums round the world suggest two things will determine the outcome. The first is whether the advocates of AV can overcome a general tendency for referendum campaigns to favour the status quo. Voters often end up keeping hold of nurse, for fear of finding something worse. To take just one example: in 1979, with just two weeks to go, the Scots seemed likely to vote decisively for devolution. But in the final fortnight, many Scots stepped back from the brink; the result was a tiny 'yes' majority that fell far short of the number needed to give Scotland its own parliament. It took another 18 years, and a detailed plan supported by almost every part of Scottish civil society, bar the terminally unpopular Tories, to bring devolution about.
The second determinant will be the things voters are really thinking about when they cast their votes. Each referendum poses two questions. The first is the stated question – the words on the ballot paper. The second is what might be termed the 'narrative question' – what concerns people without strong views on the stated question. In 1975, when Britain held its first referendum on whether to remain in the (then) Common Market, the stated question was, in essence, in or out? But the narrative question was: 'do you want to stay safe, along with nice, sensible folk like Shirley Williams, David Steel and Willie Whitelaw; or do you want to take a leap in the dark with such swivel-eyed oddballs as Tony Benn, Enoch Powell and Ian Paisley?' No wonder we voted two-to-one to stay in, even though Britons had divided 60-40 in favour of withdrawal just nine months earlier.
In the referendum on AV, the big battle will be to define the narrative question. Will it be: 'Do you want to modernise Britain’s democracy and bring our unfair and discredited system into the twenty-first century?' Or will it be: 'Do you want to bale out the Liberal Democrats, who are more interested in protecting their backs than solving the everyday problems facing the British people?' If the first question is uppermost in voters' minds, most will vote 'yes'. But if the second question is dominant, voting reform is dead.
Which brings us back to Labour's role in this drama. We know that many leading Tories will campaign for FPTP, even if David Cameron privately wants his coalition partner to get his way. As AV would make it harder for the Conservatives to win an election outright, we can safely assume that (as our polls show) most Tory supporters will vote 'no'. On the other hand, a big majority of Liberal Democrats are certain to vote 'yes'.
Labour supporters hold the key. If the party, and its new leader, proclaim the ‘modernising’ case for reform, maybe enough just electors will vote 'yes' to produce a narrow majority for reform. But if Labour’s new leader is lukewarm, and the party divided, then our poll suggests that many Labour supporters will decide to punish the party that ended up in bed with the Conservatives, and shatter Nick Clegg’s dream.
