EU Focus Groups: Undecideds know the issues but are still unsure

Jane CarnQualitative Research Director
June 16, 2016, 9:06 AM GMT+0

Ahead of next week’s vote, YouGov conducted focus groups for The Times among undecided voters in Newcastle in London.

The discussions covered the central themes of the campaign so far.

Leave's leaders go down well in the North

In Newcastle several members of the group – on both sides of the debate - expressed disappointment in the way David Cameron and George Osborne have acted during the campaign.

Cameron’s renegotiations were looked upon negatively, with Satpal, 55, saying: "He tried very, very hard but didn’t get the desired result. I felt he was genuine. He’s had to do a lot of humble pie."

Alan, 65, who voted Conservative last year and is leaning towards Brexit said of Osborne: "I don’t believe a word he said." Tom, 41, said that he distrusted Mr Osborne’s prediction that people would be worse off in 15 years.

In contrast, Michael Gove and Boris Johnson were well received in Newcastle. Labour voter Joan said the Justice Secretary "was very brave. They were all friends and he was going against the party leaders. Cameron waffles but Gove is quite direct."

Similarly, Lucie, who is undecided, says of the former Mayor of London: "You know more about him because of the way he is, he’s on everyone’s wavelength."

However, in the capital it was a different story. Tim, who thought Johnson was a "fabulous" mayor and leans towards Brexit, said the Leave campaigner had "not been straight from the start." Five group members said his statements on President Obama had gone too far.

Economic worries

Across the focus groups, there was almost unanimous agreement that, in the short term at least, economic uncertainty would follow Brexit, although some believed it may be worth it in the long term.

In London, Brexit-leaning Tim believed "that it would be more stable in the short term should we stay and leaving does throw up a risk about what’s going to happen. But it’s what happens in the long term that nobody knows: we don’t know what it’s going to be like if we stay but I think we can make a good recovery."

Lisa, who is also leaning towards Brexit, thought that there were too many unknown factors in the economy to worry about the impact of leaving Europe. "I would say that if I learnt anything from the last crash, it would be that...anything can happen. Who knew about the mortgage crisis?"

Free movement

Another issue that has been central to the referendum debate is immigration. The focus groups seemed less swayed by the notion that Britain is 'too full', in fact issues around sovereignty and control were more powerful among this audience.

Neil, 40, a taxi driver from Newcastle who is leaning towards Brexit, said that he thought it was fine for EU migrants to come to the UK to work. "They come to benefit the country. They are pulling their weight. They should be able to [take nothing in benefits] for two years. That’s what I think would be right. Or even five years, [during which] they can’t claim a penny."

Lisa, who is leaning towards voting to leave, said immigration arguments were off-putting: "We have more immigration from outside the EU than in the EU and we are able to control the immigration but aren’t doing it. So what makes us think we would leave the EU [and] we would control it when we don’t do that at the moment? So I just disregard it."

It is clear that with the campaigns reaching their climaxes many undecided voters are aware of the main isues but are still unsure of which way they will lean.