The end of the Green Surge?

April 02, 2015, 10:49 AM GMT+0

In an aggregation of YouGov's daily voting intention polls the Greens fell below the Lib Dems in March for the first time since November – and have fallen behind the Conservatives among 18-24s

From September to December YouGov noticed a steady rise in support for the Green party. Starting from 4% last summer, they climbed to 7% between December to February – tying with the Liberal Democrats, who have remained at 7% since September. During this period the Greens reached as high as a two point lead over the Liberal Democrats in our daily voting intention polls, which on two occasions persisted for two days.

The shift, referred to in the media as the Green Surge, looks like it may have peaked.

At 6%, the Greens fell back below the Lib Dems (7%) in March, and in yesterday's daily voting intention poll were four points behind the Lib Dems – the largest gap since October. More significantly, a drop in support among 18-24 year-olds – the key drivers of the Green Surge – has now continued for two consecutive months. The Greens are on 20% among the lower age group, down from 23% in February and 25% in January.

Having beaten the Conservatives in popularity among 18-24s in the previous two months, and having tied with them in December, the Greens have now fallen three points below. However support for the Greens is still 2% above its May 2014 level, and if they were to replicate their current level of support on election day they would have bettered their 2010 result six times over.

Overall, the Labour lead vanished in March, as they tied with the Conservatives (both on 34%) for the first time since January 2012. The Liberal Democrats continued a very gradual climb in support among 18-24 year-olds, increasing their share by 1% each month to 8% in March, from a low of 5% in December.

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